Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marek_wojna who wrote (70495)	9/28/2008 11:00:15 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Marek. The bust which I have been expecting for a few years is on us now with the housing crunch. The bust I have been waiting for in NZ hasn't yet arrived, but is getting warmed up. Those selling commercial property in Albany [in Auckland] and I suppose elsewhere would no doubt disagree that the bust hasn't arrived. The for sale and for lease signs are on about 70% of properties. There should be a housing bust in NZ of similar or greater proportions to the USA crunch. There should be a NZ$ bust [which is partly underway from US83c to US67c. The RIMM bust I have been expecting is underway. The Nokia bust I have been hoping for is struggling to get started, but should happen. The share price is leading the way. The Made in China boom in CDMA is just getting going. The bust in banking and financial relativity theory companies will continue for a while, but then there will be a big recovery of those which are not bust. Already, the lines between the winners and losers is forming. Those on the acquisition trails are the likely winners = J P Morgan, Barclays, maybe even the USA government with their $100s of billions shopping spree. There will be a bust in oil [and other fossil fuels] as market share goes to nuclear, wind, insulation, walking, moving to a warm climate, moving closer to work, buying a little car instead of Hummer. OPEC and co will need to slash prices to get money. They need money. They can't just keep the oil in the ground for future generations and neither do they want to. The peak of oil prices has already gone. There will be recoveries all over the place after the market clearing. Dow 16,000 will be here before you know it. Notice how the stock market is relatively unaffected by the financial sector shambles [Dow down from 13,000 or so to 11,000 is no big deal]. There's a rough summary. Gung Ho, Mqurice PS Your posting rate isn't very high!! Welcome back.