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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (271090)	9/29/2008 3:31:46 AM
From: LindyBill	16 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793718

Therein lies the problem and the reason your argument is feeble. DD, you have taken over the thread with this Palin discussion. Enough!

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (271090)	9/29/2008 3:35:50 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793718

Bush Sr. was going to beat Dukakis regardless After 8 years of Reagan? Hardly a forgone conclusion. Dukakis led by double digits in the summer, until he started running a really bad campaign in the fall.

To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (271090)	9/29/2008 10:25:56 AM
From: Alan Smithee	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793718

Bush Sr. was going to beat Dukakis regardless, but picking Quayle made the margin of victory 54-46 instead of perhaps 56-44 if Bush had picked someone of average competence for the VP slot. In other words, Quayle probably cost Bush Sr. about 4 points of winning margin (yielding an 8-pt win instead of a 12-pt win). I retract my post of about 10 minutes ago. It appears you have particular expertise in polling science. I had no idea you have such expertise. To say with such certainty that Bush 41's margin of victory would have been 2 points higher but for Quayle being on the ticket indicates a level of understanding I could never hope to achieve. Therefore, your conclusion that a six point drop-off for McCain in the polls is due to lack of support for Sarah Palin has to be spot on.