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To: Peter Shaw who wrote (22557)	10/21/1997 2:04:00 PM
From: Sridhar Srinivasan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

Peter, you are on target when you talk about skeeter's inability to look at anything beyond current spot prices (posted on achilles) for 16 Mb EDO part (which will probably off the market in a couple of months) as a basis for demanding a $10 value for MU stock. Conveniently for him, at this point, the action in the stock seems to reflect the general pessimism about the glut in DRAMs (including 16 and 64 Mb SDRAM), which is a situation that will correct itself in due course of time. Of course, till that happens, skeeter's simple model (in the absence of anything more concrete longterm) of harping on low prices for an outdated part in the spot market might retain short term validity. Sridhar

To: Peter Shaw who wrote (22557)	10/21/1997 5:42:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

>>Not saying there is anything compelling, but painting a more complex picture than "GTW or MU is a $20 stock because they won't make money next quarter".<< peter, that is not what i've been saying at all. very inaccurate. my paradigm is that there is a global gut through 1998. i've already said i doubt they make $1 in 1998. other companies have lots more $$$$ and can ramp faster andthe main way to reduce costs is to increase output. moving to 64 mb also multiplies supply even more. these companies have all been building (look at amat, even after a 20% haircut!) in anticipation of demand with little focus on supply. the analists have been beating that drum like crazy and suckers have believed it, imho. well, they are now realizing tha there are problems and it is too late for 98. then their is my pump and dump paradigm with tk. his estimates for 1998 is $1.25. the herd listens to what he says and manipulates them like puppets. when mu posts a nickel or a dime vs his estimate of $0.25 for this q, he's going to raise, 1998 estimates, right? NO WAY, HE'S GOING TO PILE ON AND REDUCE THEM BELOW $1.00. then everyone is going to fall over themselves to pay $30 or $40 or $50 for a $1 in eps next year with no visility for 99 (i haven't even got a clue about 99). tk won't give "visibility" (i know, what a joke!) for 99 until he and his buds are back in mu at a much lower price. then we repeat. you alos have to consider the valuation of a company, though the bulls don't understand valuation very well. a thrid thing to consider is that another grueling q will break the back of a % of bulls that thought last q was an accident. why is mu worth a 34 pe in the midst of the worst recent supply gut (worse than when mu was $17)? imho, this is a no brainer just like when mu was $50+ and sridhar said that "nobody cares about 1 q's eps. time will tell. i've given many details of how my paradigm works. mu talks to analists in mid nov (nov 11 if their mo is consistent), the selling begins and then the downgrades come. tk will be the first to downgrade this time. he was second last time as he was still in dump phase. not this time ;-) i estimate earnings and make wild statements like the analists are 100% too high. when i'm right then i'm "lucky." sram is a little of an unknown quantity. aice says pricing is similar to dram. my friend who is funded by a taiwanese sram mfg says he's printing money. but, he's been making sram for a long time. as for gtw, they can't compete now or in the future with dcpq and dell. this isn't a temporary thing. they've disappointed 3 qs in a row. muei can't compete longer term. neither can ibm. cpq and dell, to a lesser extent, can run absolute mfg circles around these other boxmakers. gtw is sol. this q. next q and every q in the foreseeable future. that is why they suck. not just b/c they'll miss 1 q. good luck, peter. i hope your bearish stance makes you rich ;-)