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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (41101)	10/11/2008 4:02:18 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217868

>>>> ... if i had simply been in cash at start of year, but equally distributed across USD, Euro, CAD, and AUD, I would be down 11% in any case as of today <<<< in which currency are you calculating? are you taking into account interest payments or the discount on forwards? what would be the ratio between currencies (all eaqual I assume) and hedging policies on each position? as to your gold calculation (mostly the physical delivery)storage cost and buy sell spreads which in currencies are almost nil. From what I remember taking possession of gold bars cost you something like 5% if not more. Still even that based on history all indicators point to "buy gold" as the ultimate international currency in practice I have my suspicions. Based on this theory of " buy gold" maybe “buy diamonds” from certified dealers makes more sense,as there are nill storage costs or even masters art which hold their value during crisis enjoy them for few years and can compensate for inflation in good times In my opinion it would be much more profitable to identify which tradable asset would be best in those times posed by extreme panic - and to this at the moment I do not have an answer I am plenty frustrated as my EUR/USD put are deep in the money and got to enjoy only ½ of the EUR move from 1.58 – I doubled up at the reflex rally toward 1.48 but closed this one to early at 1.39 :( - as to my AUD holding I eat crow – as it is below the 2005 level I bought and only interest rate averaging 7% / year are more or less covering my paper losses. At least I sold my CAD timely and now searching for other confetti called by others money as a medium of exchange – thinking of BRL (Brazilian Real) as a candidate CAD for their banking system soundness and to continue to hold on my AUD. Buying the JPY and / or Swissy is out of question as this trade is well overcrowded now and soon will pay negative interest as in the past!! Also contemplating to re-enter the commodities asset class but IMHO the present Sunspots period which anticipated the current stock market demise will bring rain to the Southern Hemisphere more specifically Australia which may dampen grain prices. As to gold I am still not sold on buying it because of its failure to react to both anticipated super inflation and market panic. As to the USD after all panic selling will subside and market participants will recognize that US import will fall not because higher productivity in the US but the deep recession, the USD may head south into a hurry baffling every one on the planet as no one would dear buying again US debt for several years. One exception would be if Putin with his ex KGB buddies and entourage would be successful ousted from power and a more pro- democratic pro-western group will lead Russia – until then gold may prove a fair investment. (as to my sun spot activity theory see my previous posts on this issue)