>>Elwood, why don't you call back and ask for the date of the report. The date of the report was prior to CYMI's conference call in which Cymer discounted the information in this report.<<
The report was from 10/6. Here is the last response from GriffinMRX. Notice the header "could be old news, but". He never tried to pass it off as hot off the press. I believe some of you owe an apology, both to him and to the rest of the board here. He has asked that his posts not be put here in the future and some of you people made a decision for the rest of the board that you were not in a position to make, ie lose a good source of information. Darrell, this is not to you in particular, but in general to this board.
>>Subject: Re: Could be old news but...
Date: Tue, Oct 21, 1997 12:00 EDT
From: GriffinMrX
Message-id: <19971021160001.MAA20836@ladder01.news.aol.com>
I hope that someone will point blank ask Akin if any orders for Nikon have been canceled or adjusted (as opposed to pushed back) for 1st quarter 98. Someone on the SI board thinks this report from SBH is old (i.e. from September) but it is not. Someone else on SI (at least it appears more people there believe the SBH now and that it is relevant) posted that this must be some sort of follow-up dated October 6. So it is not old (relative) and it is not
irrelevant. This question should be asked on the conference call and hopefully someone will. I will call DLJ (my firm has account) and hope to ask Robert Maire (CYMI analyst) if he can ask this question and I will fax him this report as well.
As for why it arrived here late, I'm surprised that Bloomberg did not catalog this report under Cymer as well. Usually, they post reports any time the company's name is mentioned, regardless if it is another company's report. I know many people out here can verify that fact. I use Bloomberg all the time and to give one example. Informix had a report from MS a few days ago regarding Sybase's earnings and the only mention of Informix was that Sybase beat out Oracle and Informix on an account (the Kmart of Mexico!)
As for Scott and Style points thanks for posting my comments on the SI board. I never intended them to go there and now that Ian who still thinks this is old news is burning me on the cross just for posting what I thought was important since no one on either board even mentioned this. I didn't even state my opinion on the piece, Geez, Ian calm the **** down. If it's too much for you then wait til after earnings. In my original post, I didn't even
state my position in the company, so you claim I'm short, then I tell you I'm long and then you tell me you can't trust me. Who cares what my position is or whether you trust me? You think I trust any of your posts? Especially your last piece of crap regarding Hong Kong Fidelity, talk about irrelevant. I am passing on published research, not opinion or rumor. I am not disagreeing or agreeing with the analyst's comments. You seem to think that
many people read this on 10/6 and thought, "nah, this isn't noteworthy". That is totally contradictory when the SI board commented for weeks on Montgomery and MS's downgrades so this is not "old" news. This is 2 week old news that was under ASMLF on bloomberg and not under Cymer. Otherwise, this would have been talked about then.
I can take solace in the fact that most people especially here on the Fool appreciate this information. I think Ian only wants to hear Cymi at $50 by year-end. Well, if that makes him feel better, then fine. Oh well, please don't post any of my comments on SI after this one.
This now confirms why I only posted on AOL in the first place. At least no one here publicly slammed me and most people actually appreciate this information. I will continue to post here. Mason Barge, and countless others have made very informative posts; nothing that I could get from an analyst. After reading many posts here and doing my own homework I bought in and am waiting for Thursday like a holiday.
My value is in resources. I can get any single research item from any brokerage house and retype verbatim. Regardless of how anyone feels about analysts what they publish is read and acted on by many of the brokerage and institutional funds. If people don't find my comments noteworthy please e-mail me back and I won't post any longer if I get enough. Geez, and I thought I was only being informative.
As for those that would still like this 2 page report I am more than happy to fax; it is in legitimate Smith Barney format. Ian, if you seriously think I would waste that much time making up estimates and crap for Nikon, you need help? As for those people who want the report you need to e-mail me a fax number. It is a hard copy; I don't have a scanner, etc.. so I can't electronically fax it to you. I would e-mail it to you but I'm not sure how to
down load report from Bloomberg.
Good luck to all. Thanks for those supporting me and those who thought I was making that report up (especially on SI), well...if you don't have anything good to say regarding my posts then ignore them so that people there will not have to waste their time reading a debate between me and Ian on whether I spent several days and/or hours making up an "old" Smith Barney report. Ian, why don't you get back to refocusing your posts towards the company
and I'll do the same, agreed? In this case, it is agreed by me, and I won't spend any more time proving a SB report which I still think begs the question to be asked to the CEO regarding Nikon's continued laser shipments through 98, specifically any adjustments downward.
GriffinMRX
Subject: Re: This "Dead" Horse
Date: Tue, Oct 21, 1997 12:23 EDT
From: GriffinMrX
Message-id: <19971021162301.MAA22335@ladder01.news.aol.com>
While I think, correctly I might add, it is important to demonstrate SB's apparent inaccuracies historically (as in conference call as cited on SI thread), I only want to clear up one final thing. This report is dated 10/6, 5 days after DLJ initiated coverage so these are new found claims by Mr. Goto of SB that Nikon will use Komatsu lasers. People on SI seem to think these are old assertions in mid-September. That may be
similar but these are clearly more specific. But no one has ever posted or nor did SB ever spefically before this report say the number of lasers, peformance of both, etc..
If you read, he states, "we believe that Nikon will order 21 lasers in 1Q98". Big difference between a confirmation that Nikon has officially ordered 21. The only thing he confirmed was that Nikon has used the Komatsu laser. As for which laser is better, none of us can know for sure but my money would be on Cymer's. I just hope that if Goto is right, that Akin doesn't tell us this on Thursday, but that news comes out much later, perhaps in 98. I
think the earnings will be met, hopefully beating them substantially (closer to DLJ's .29 than to consensus of .21-.22) but whether this takes off is how the Q&A goes. If the company is too conservative, then the stock will not jump. If they just say, "hey, all we do is build lasers and nothing has changed" and they come in at .29 then we should see steady rise in stock and should cruise by DLJ's $33 target in no time.
GriffinMRX
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