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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hedgefund who wrote (80921)	10/12/2008 8:39:13 AM
From: quartersawyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197271

Preposterous. Paul says handsets are consumer staples, like corn flakes.

To: hedgefund who wrote (80921)	10/12/2008 11:18:27 AM
From: sag	1 Recommendation Respond to of 197271

From the same Barron's article..... (snip)An old Boy Scout, Fred staunchly believes in being prepared. So he has drawn up a list of what to buy comes the post-capitulation rally.Since he's convinced we're heading into a deep and extended recession, his picks are restricted pretty much to companies boasting high cash flows, clean balance sheets and hefty gross margins. Microsoft (MSFT) is at the top of his list if it can be snared in the low 20s (he bought a little last week). He considers EMC (EMC) attractive in the single digits, reckoning that demand for storage equipment will hold up even in a recession; its software business has been growing rapidly, and it owns most of VMware , No. 1 in virtualization. For that matter, he likes VMware (VMW) itself, plus a bunch of other software companies from Adobe Systems (ADBE), Sybase (SY) and Oracle (ORCL) to Lawson Software (LWSN) and JDA Software (JDAS). He thinks Nokia (NOK) might be worth a look, thanks to its status as the leading mobile phone maker and the stock's 5% dividend. And if you can buy Cisco Systems (CSCO) in the teens, you probably won't be sorry. Why, perhaps a tad giddy, Fred even suggested Apple (AAPL) in the 70s or low 80s might be worth a fling.

To: hedgefund who wrote (80921)	10/12/2008 12:13:41 PM
From: David E. Taylor	2 Recommendations Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 197271

I read that article in the print version of Barrons. First Hickey likes companies with "high cash flows, clean balance sheets and hefty gross margins", all of which apply to QCOM. Second he likes companies like NOK, MSFT, EMC, ADBE, ORCL whose sales he thinks will hold up well in a recession. But he doesn't seem to understand that people are not going to give up their mobile phones, and even if replacement cycles lengthen, they will still be turning over their handsets for new ones every 2-3 years. The current installed user base pretty much guarantees 1 billion plus handset sales/year. As I've noted a couple of times here, the transition of the GSM world to 3G WCDMA ensures QCOM's growing the royalty bearing share of the handset market even if total global handset sales are flat year/year. The only real threat to growing royalty revenues for QCOM is if the recession results in cut throat competition and rapidly shrinking handset average ASPs Third, I can't see what basis he has for the notion that QCOM's "guidance on operating results are at risk". QCOM has fairly recently affirmed that Q4 guidance is unchanged, and there is no guidance yet for FY2009, and won't be until QCOM reports on 11/5/08. All that said, his comment that, "As an institutional favorite, Qualcomm shares could be ripe to become a target for a spate of aggressive selling", may well well turn out to be true if the forced redemptions and the market sell off continues. David