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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Suma who wrote (90783)	10/19/2008 3:24:41 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 541299

That is a "likely voters" poll based on the traditional turnout model; the results are similar to Gallup. But it isn't the same as the registered voters polls that run 8-10% and the alternate likely voters model Gallup has at 5-6 points. More important, McCain has to close the gap in 10-12 states before he will start to look like a winner. IOW, it won't help him if he wins some red states by larger margins and still gets creamed in the electoral college.

To: Suma who wrote (90783)	10/19/2008 4:04:02 PM
From: JohnM	Respond to of 541299

Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama's Lead Slips Another Point, Down to 3 ML, it makes a large difference what the sampling basis is. My guess is that one was based on a traditional model of likely voters, which assumes the same turnout as 04. Registered voter models tend to give a wider lead to Obama. And it's also interesting to take a peak at likely voter models based on an expanded model, one that includes sampling for possible increased registration and turnout.

To: Suma who wrote (90783)	10/19/2008 4:17:20 PM
From: Rambi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 541299

Fanfare! We have just returned from lunch with mominlaw, and COlin Powell succeeded where all else had failed. It will painful and sad for her, but she will pull the lever for Obama. Powell just managed to pull it all together for her in a logical and careful way, and he did exactly what I am sure the Dems would have hoped- convinced her that if HE trusts Obama with this country's safety, then she can, too.

To: Suma who wrote (90783)	10/19/2008 4:24:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 541299

<<<Worrisome ? Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama's Lead Slips Another Point, Down to 3>>> This is extremely worrisome. Look at what Barack has going for him: 1. He has and is spending 2 or 3 times the money McCain has. 2. McCain has a running mate that they will not give access to the American people for questions (this is unheard of in American politics.) 3. McCain has exhibited erratic behavior during the financial crisis. Suspended his campaign for a time and generally acted like a man without a plan and or any knowledge of the financial system. 4. McCain's party (reps) is running a dirty and ineffective campaign suggesting Barack associates with terrorists and is not patriotic. They are making robotelephone calls announcing that if Obama is elected he will promote a socialist agenda to take money away from hard working Americans and turning it over to the poor and unemployed. 5. An overwhelming majority of Americans are ready to get rid of the rep party and blaming them for the mismanagement of our country over the last 8 years. Yet, Obama has only a small lead in the polls - often only within the margin of error. People running Obama'scampaign need a reality check. They are thinking landslide. They are pouring money into NC, Virginia, Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, and other red states when they should be concentrating on Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and other must win states.