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To: Chemsync who wrote (27610)	10/21/1997 6:58:00 PM
From: boogaloo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31386

[ BellSouth ADSL] There is an article in our local newspaper today about the ADSL trial BellSouth is starting this week in Birmingham, AL. There's a picture of a BellSouth employee holding up a modem, but I can't make out the manufacturer. I assume it is from Alcatel. (BellSouth is in the JPC right?) Bill Smith, vice president of product commercialization at BellSouth's Atlanta headquarters is quoted several times. The paragraph I found to be the most interesting follows. This is the cheapest pricing I've seen mentioned anywhere. There was no mention of start-up costs. >>During the Birmingham trial, ADSL costs only $20 dollars per month residentially, and between $70 and $200 for businesses. When ADSL becomes available in more markets, it could cost $5 to $10 more monthly for residences, according to Bill Smith. (These costs are in addition to regular phone bills and any fee from an ISP)<< The author mentioned later in the article that an additional phone line is not required for ADSL. If these prices hold true, I think we can blow cable modems away. boogaloo

To: Chemsync who wrote (27610)	10/21/1997 11:40:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31386

[Chat] <<<Pat, since you're the prettiest one on the thread, I nominate you as the purchaser of this publication (only $2150) >>> If Elizabeth were Gerard or Giles or Rupert or Reginald, I'd make the phone call and negotiate a better price. Better yet, take them to lunch. :)) Ah, well, truth be told, I'm about a decade late on using my feminine charm. <<<p.s. Have you thought of publishing your own report?>> Based on what the other guy told me today, I don't think my numbers of a few months ago are any less scientific. For what it's worth, here's what I learned back in July: <<< My rough and ready research on world-wide projections for 1997-98 has netted a few interesting results that I think you might enjoy. When I wrote to each company, I said I was an investor with a concentration in ADSL stocks and because the research listed in the ADSL Forum was so varied, I was doing a casual survey myself. This is what came back: <<< NEC Australia: I'm the Marketing Manager for NEC Australia's access products and have been involved since before the ADSL Forum was formed. You ask a hard question. As you surely realise, Telco's and ISP's are keeping plans to themselves for competitive reasons and having bee burned by the FSN / Cable Modem / FTTC pronouncements which failed to materialise. My personal view is that ADSL will be a major technology during 1998 whilst 1997 will continue to be set aside for Pilots/Trials etc. The decision to deploy "broadband" to customers is very much dependant on the business case - which is revenue from new service dependant. Technologies like Satellite are also confusing the picture. My guess is around 10,000 lines in 97 and maybe 200,000+ in 1998. Hope this helps (or at least doesn't confuse). Key demand areas to watch outside of the USA are Latin America and China. If I could help more, please contact me and yes your your work would be very interesting to receive. >>> <<< NYNEX: 07-07-97 05:00 PM Dear Pat: Right now we have an ADSL technical trial taking place with Lotus in the Boston area (about 60 people). We have not announced deployment plans. Bell Atlantic issued a news release on ADSL a few weeks ago (NYNEX will merge with Bell Atlantic within days or weeks). You should be able to pull it from www.ba.com. Hope that helps. <snip> NYNEX Public Relations >> << PacBell: We are too close to market launch in a very competitive market situation to share our projections about dsl modem counts. Because the numbers are small (a few thousand in 1997) any rough estimate would be too much detail for us to share at this time.>>> <<< BellSouth: Pat Mudge, I'm sorry but BellSouth hasn't made public any ADSL forecasts and has no intention of doing so. We will conduct a market trial this year and begin general deployment in our major metro areas next year. >>> <<< Ameritech: Sorry, but we're not publicly projecting any numbers regarding ADSL. Ameritech does plan to begin offering it commercially in the first half of 1998. Thanks.>>> >>> NEC, America: Approximate U.S. figures for numbers of homes for xDSL: 1998 495,000 1999 960,000 2000 1,760,000 2001 3,000,000 2002 4,200,000 2003 5,600,000 2004 6,800,000 2005 8,000,000 >>> >>> I asked GTE about the projections listed on the ADSL Forum and was told, "Two million would be more in line world-wide [ADSL subscriber homes by 2000]." Dataquest projects 3.7M xDSL --- a hard figure from which to extrapolate meaning since it's for all DSLs. Bottom line? No one knows what the figures will be. Everyone's giving his or her best guess and should be viewed as moving targets. Only by watching roll-out numbers and how they change month by month will we get any clarity on where the industry is headed.<<< Cheers! Pat