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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tim Luke who wrote (18588)10/21/1997 8:40:00 PM
From: Gary Korn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
 
I really doubt all the rumors of a buyout, I think its just pure stock manipulation

Tim,

I want to say first that it's fun having you on the thread and I hope you stay. I also hope that you are permitted to stay and that SI doesn't exercise censorship against you again. To the extent you might be criticized for being bearish on ASND, heck, I would rather hear the bearish view than not (though you can hardly be characterized as being truly bearish). Anyway, burying my head in the sand gets me nowhere.

I do not know if a buyout will in fact occur by YE97 or at all, but there is no doubt in my mind that discussions toward that end are occurring among and between ASND and potential strategic partners identified by ASND. Glenn Rudolph just did a fine job of listing the reasons why. Still other reasons come to my mind, many of which have been identified on the thread. The biggest issue in my mind is not whether discussions are occurring, but whether ASND can get as much for the stock as it intends. If the buyers don't materialize at the right price, you are right and there will be no takeover. I believe it was Maverick who recently warned that a buyout number would more likely be in the high 40s than in the low 50s. If the best offer should fall much lower than that, it is, as you say, back to the fundamentals. Fortunately, I believe the fundamentals are strong for the time being, even though it would make sense to me to entertain a strategic partnership going forward in this rapidly growing yet increasingly competitive and increasingly concentrated market sector.

Gary Korn



To: Tim Luke who wrote (18588)10/21/1997 11:34:00 PM
From: James A. Venooker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
 
Dear Tim,

Thanks for the timely response. Your postings have been more accurate than just about any that I have read on SI. I also own 500 shares of ASND, 300 in the conversion of CSCC and 200 at $32.
I think your outlook is probably on the money. However, the speculation of takeover is so good for the stock I guess we just hope if we say it is going to happen enough times, maybe it will. Either way I agree we should do alright with this stock in the 6-12 month time frame. I really would love to see a bidding war between AT&T or Lucent or whoever fight over this company (a la ITT, Hilton). Remember wishful thinking.

I also have a 1000 shares of INDV, what's your outlook on it? My favorite stocks include:
LLY (which I have made a killing on (please no jinx) over the past 2 years
TEXM (Michael Stewart, CEO is a wall street favorite, I am still waiting for his following to pick up on this stock, currently 3 1/2 ish.
DEC (family is friends with Robert Palmer, he likes the stock, so de we, looks ripe for either takeover (Compaq) or stock rise and split after the 1.6 billion it rakes in from Intel.
SSPE (small unknown, don't know a hell of a lot about company other than some close friends highly reccomend it at or below 15 ish
PRGS (Have done real well with this high flyer great stock at 15-17, can't touch it now)

Good luck and thanks for your feedback feel free to e-mail me directly at adijamie@aol.com.

Jamie



To: Tim Luke who wrote (18588)10/21/1997 11:51:00 PM
From: sepku  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
 
>>>Right now I'm sitting on 300 shares and I plan on holding them until ASND hits 50, which I'm predicting (if they are not bought out) around April-May 98.<<<

You keep digging yourself a bigger hole! 50 by Spring 1998, you say. Why do you bother trying to forecast that far out when you, I, and everyone else knows this is meaningless since you will undoubtably change this opinion a dozen times before then? If you truly did believe this, then I have no idea why you would bother holding approx. $10G worth of ASND stock for a pittance of $4000 (about 40% assuming you bought around 35) return by that time, rather than simply trade it. Now, if you repurchased several thousand shares and held for that return, that's well worth the wait...but for 40% off of $10G, why bother? You are an enigma, Tim!

Style Pts.



To: Tim Luke who wrote (18588)10/22/1997 2:06:00 PM
From: casey (guessed password)  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 61433
 
TIM - I "heard" SYQT is being sued by IOM (and the case has merit); and this past Sunday's NY Times Financial Section had a front page article on COMS questionable accounting practices, and made no secret of its displeasure. - Both probably 'old news' by now...