Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (88959)	10/22/2008 10:49:28 PM
From: The Reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Iceland is next after WaMu.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (88959)	10/23/2008 1:35:33 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Hi AJ, the TED spread was hugely in vogue back in 1987 at the time of the crash, it and it's buddy the MOB Spread Muni's over Treasuries was blown out during the Orange County Ca wipeout in 1995. I lost money putting that spread on too late. TED is not as important as the LIBOR-OIS, and also the Commercial Paper rates during this time period, in my opinion. But it's all important and all of these credit metrics and spreads move in discernable patterns. What is pretty impressive is that these credit bench marks are not readily understood by many stock market participants. John

To: ajtj99 who wrote (88959)	10/23/2008 8:53:52 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	2 Recommendations Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 116555

The spread that counts is not the Ted Spread/Libor anymore, it's the corporate credit spreads and those are a disaster. One can pick up senior bank debt at 15-17% UNLEVERED yields which begs the questions: A) Why buy equities which are lowest in the cap structure? B) What is the true value of equities based on those assumptions? The world doesn't have to end if equities fall, but equities must trade in some relation to debt. I'm not sure when people will realize this.