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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (23166)10/26/2008 8:39:28 PM
From: neolib  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 36917
 
If you ask people who believe in Global Warming to explain it, almost none of them can explain the supposed mechanisms even approximately.

What is difficult to explain? That is why the analogy with a glass greenhouse is used. Sure the dynamics of a gas floating around in the atmosphere is more difficult to grasp than the abrupt material changes of a glass greenhouse, but the analogy is pretty good, and pretty simple to understand. Don't be confused by some of the idiotic claims that AGW is not at all like a glass greenhouse you can find floating around the web, i.e. the ones claiming greenhouses are heated by convection modulation.

If you think my theory on 72 for this cycle is incorrect, why not take the opportunity to relieve me of a hefty amount of cash? How about this for a fair bet, which would give us even odds if you are right: I bet that this peak will be below the average of 20th century and you bet that it will be above. Let's make it for $100,000 to be meaningful.

I have no interest at all in such a bet, because in looking at the data, I have absolutely no reason to choose one side or the other. I might as well bet $100K on a coin toss which is not something I would do. I'm not the one claiming the next cycle is going to be unusual at all. I note with interest that you have changed from yakking about the sun going out, to just the next cycle being below the 20'th century mean.