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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (112658)	10/27/2008 8:25:37 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 206184

I agree Ed, and I think the advances in solar etc will continue and mitigate run away oi going forward.. I thought i would be ready to mortgage my house and back up the truck @ 80$ oil..

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (112658)	10/27/2008 8:44:43 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206184

Wonder how much consumption is from reduced economic activity or just a response to prices? I think there is a load of discretionary driving that can be cut to make the impact shown. This demand can return with present low prices once and if ever the bad news slows. Also with housing construction activity way off you can be sure there are many workers not driving to construction sites. They are probably back home in Mexico. Either way I think prices of $75 WTI and $9 NG appear like a good balance point here. Maybe one day we will see this numbers again. Maybe even before the end of the Winter, or maybe next Winter's end.

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (112658)	10/27/2008 9:19:13 PM
From: Archie Meeties	3 Recommendations Respond to of 206184

Ed, the oil story is over for any time horizon I can dream up. There is no reason to chase commodities in this environment, not peak oil myths, not the coming drop in the us dollar, and especially not "compelling valuations" in the equities. We just lived through just another energy cycle, nothing more nothing less imo. I can easily see an environment where crude stays rangebound for the next 2 years. Message 24874481 I bit the bullet, sold my last bits of BEXP, TXCO, DWSN today. My attempts to bottom fish off the supply disruptions of Ike were mistaken, plain an simple, and lesson learned. I'm expecting a market bounce, but I'd rather be in other things. Unfortunately, I'm beginning to doubt alternative energy as well. Even under Obama, with subsidies, etc., projected demand will get slashed with weakening energy prices, especialy coal. Jury is still out, as coal is one of the less affected commodities todate.

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (112658)	10/27/2008 10:37:05 PM
From: RWS	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206184

It would really be interesting to see a chart of global consumption, production, and price. The story may look a little different. The financial crisis and the huge shifts of capital may add to oil price volatility, but the underlying global trend has been depletion and higher consumption. It looks gloomy at the bottom and its starting to get thick here. RWS

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (112658)	10/28/2008 12:37:27 AM
From: Sailing2	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206184

Thanks Ed. Your comments and the others of the last several hours do a good job of framing the range of views about where oil will go from here. While I would never discount Archimedes position, my views tend to line up a bit more with RWS. It's not enough to consider only Japan, Europe and the U.S. in terms of oil demand, all of which are declining in importance as noted. China, India, Russia, the Middle East, etc. must be taken into account as well, especially China going foward. Also, when we do go over the global peak in total oil production from all sources (circa 2010-2012?) it may look more like a cliff than a gentle slope, given what the North Sea, Cantarell, Norway, etc, have shown about the impact of modern production methods on subsequent depletion rates. So it will be a race between depletion and net demand (destruction vs. growth), modulated of course by the current financial meltdown and the growth of renewables (as noted by Black Swan). As always "time will tell." Thanks again to you and the other posters here for your thoughtful and constructive comments. Cheers, Arthur

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (112658)	10/28/2008 1:19:09 AM
From: CusterInvestor	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206184

Ed, you may find this presentation by Matt Simmons of some interest. He has his bias, but I find his argument convincing. I do not think anyone expected the huge deleveraging currently underway but the long term picture remains intact. I think this quote sums it up for me: "Oil Demand Is Fickle, Supply Is Not" simmonsco-intl.com 10/21/08