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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (112919)11/1/2008 7:18:29 PM
From: Kayaker  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206178
 
Yes, I listened to Roubini on BNN. Kevin called him "dude".

I have no idea if we just passed the bottom, or we're in a bear market rally that will fade to the lows or lower. Wish I knew.

Roubini has been right, but will he continue to be bearish way past the lows? Dunno. I think he's more of an "economy" guy than a "stock market" guy.

Many stocks 50% off their lows.

Watching... 100% cash.



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (112919)11/2/2008 1:58:48 PM
From: ChanceIs2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206178
 
I saw Roubini in person this last Thursday at the American Enterprise Institute. He has become quite the voice - giving a major (15 minute) interview at least every other day. What he said at the AEI wasn't too much different than what he said here. The AEI had a conference with six presentations from prominent economists (vice news anchors). Then the individual presenters had the opportunity to interrogate each other. Roubini fielded a few questions from hos peers, but there was certainly implicit agreement from his peers with everything he said.

What he has been saying new in the last week is (paraphrase):

Progress in the debt markets??? Yes there has been some change. Before the banks weren't lending to each other at 4% LIBOR. Now they aren't lending to each other at 3% LIBOR.

My financial well being depends on the markets. I follow them as close as possible from my "retail desk." I am very sure that the news service only recently started tuning in on LIBOR as a real indicator of the health. I would guess that most in the media had never heard of LIBOR a year ago. The real experts (eg Jim Rogers) were pointing at LIBOR and howling a year ago. My overwhelming sense is that last week's rally was in large part due to LIBOR slipping. It is also my sense that 1 in 100 actually asked what volume of loans was transacting at 3% LIBOR. Hell, I don't even know how to find out. I think that most of the world is deceived and his address of the volume is huge.

I have seen Roubini in person three times now. Shook his hand last spring. My overwhelming impression is that he is a person of great sincerity. He hung it all out there two years ago in predicting this fiasco - and received more than a little ridicule. I also sense that he has been cashing in - making his career. There is nothing wrong with that. However if you look at his resume, it is clear that he has already made it - he could have a job at any prominent financial institution. He still might be reaching for the book deal - again nothing wrong with that.

Having said all of that, I find him a little weird in the sense that he always tries to dress like a slob. He wears a tie, but always has it down a couple of inches. I would guess that the presidential candidates appear in dress shirts w/o ties half of the time. That has become acceptable. I think that he should either lose the tie or keep it spiffed. He seems to be trying to make some sort of anti-administration statement. Like the hippies with long hair in the '60s.

Bottom line.....I ascribe a huge amount of credibility to what he says.