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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jaker who wrote (9192)	11/2/2008 6:43:30 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41549

ST, SPY traced out an impulse from 10/27 to 10/29. What we have the last couple of days is either C -- or 1 of 3 up (all in wiggles Whatever is our definition of short term, the above mentioned impulse is still a two day wiggle impulse. We have no knowledge which way the market will break. What we do is look for clues from the chart. If we start seeing impulsive moves linking together in one direction, whereas we can see "three-wavers" facing the other way, the impulses will be the way the trend will probably continue. The trick is that "three-wavers" can be sharp, consisting of impulses, like zigzags. At this time, if SPY takes out $92 - the entire wiggle rally since 10/27 becomes a "three--waver", and the odds are that Mr. Market is trying to tell us we're going down. Just to show how hairy things may become, let me mention that EVEN if the 92 low of 10/29 gets taken out, it whole thing may still be an Expanded Flat starting at 10/29 top. The marginal new high on Friday would be Wave "b" of that Flat. The good news is that if SPY pulls back towards 92, and THEN begins to power up to new highs, in THAT case we can play it as an evolving Wave 3 - or, at least as a larger "C". I used wiggles just to illustrate the point... we face the same questions in every time frame. Sometimes we have sentiment helping us, or Classic TA, or like with Ray, Gann... or cycles. Sometimes several counts will coincide and point in the same direction. It usually helps to remember the larger trend - and that one is still down. Longer term, take a good long look at the chart below: What I see in that decline is devastation, heartbreaks, disappointments... I see thousands - millions - of individuals and families losing their savings. Each one of those little rallies and "flags" on the way down lasted for several weeks, maybe months - just like the one we have today - and everyone who bought into them trying to catch the bottom, got hurt. Are we about to experience something similar? - no way to know. So far this current bear looks like he's mean - and means business. May not be a bad idea to print out a copy of the 1029-32 chart..... and tape it to the computer. Just as a reminder.