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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (5637)	10/22/1997 12:20:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

There has been much talk in the past few days which suggets that if Cymer makes or beats its earnings estimates, the stock should perform well. Beating earnings expectations, especially given the Needham incident and subsequent events, will be only the opening act to the main event in my opinion. The main event will be the conference call and especially the question and answer session. Never have I seen a conference call that could be sold as a pay-for-view event on cable <g>. Perhaps a caged tag team wrestling match between Cymer and this thread in one corner and some of the analysts (read institutions) that follow Cymer in the other corner. I have never witnessed such polarity of opinion over the state of a company at least in the short term. Listen carefully to the Q & A. Will the analysts congratulate Cymer over a good quarter? Will they pursue a line of questioning relentlessly aimed at poking holes into the report or Cymer's future? Listen to their tone. Is it one of suprise, disbelief or satisfaction? Reading a transcript (thanks Scott) of the confernece call will not do justice, in my opinon, to gauging how the street views Cymer's report and future. Of course, I am assuming Cymer will beat expectations. If they meet or beat by a smaller margin than anticipated (you pick the number) then all the rumors and speculation will come to the surface again and we will see a replay of the post Needham discussion topics whether justified or not. With respect to the Smith Barney report, there are two main issues regarding this debate. The first is whether it is actually a Smith Barney product. I appreciate Mr. Griffin putting this report out because there is little doubt in my mind that he thinks he has a vaild Smith Barney product. What more could we want or expect from him or anyone that posts on SI or AOL? (I tend to believe it is a valid Smith Barney product not for what is says but because Mr. Griffin does not act or write like some fool who is trying to talk the market down and so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt regarding his source of information). The second more important issue is whether it matters or not. Assuming it is a Smith Barney product, all of those issue have been addressed by this thread with excpetion of the 21 lasers possibly being shipped (not accepted) to Nikon from Kamatsu. Remember, Nikon essentially denied problems with Cymer lasers through the Cymer conference call as has been posted. During the conference call it was pointed out that all Nikon DUV product is shipping with a Cymer laser. ASMLF doesn't appear to be having any problems with Cymer as it is in full scale production of DUV steppers with Cymer lasers. The same goes for SVGI. Canon has not stated that it is having problems with Cymer and it is a Japanesse company. Finally, how much Cymer stock does Nikon own? Anyway, I do hope this issue is raised during the conference call but as it stands now it is a hypothetical event with minimal implications. Everyone wants a second source and 21 lasers, assuming this is even true, could well be part of the 10-20% of the market that Cymer does not own. But you say Smith Barney research shows that Komatsu's lasers are better. Until Smith Barney discloses it reasearch source(s) ("our research") or admits to test firing lasers at the "Komatsu plant" themselves, for all I know they called Komatsu and got fed this line and that was the extent of their "research.". Wait, doesn't Komatsu have a lawsuit going against Cymer for patent infringement? Again, I hope this issue is raised again during the conference call just to see if anything has changed over the past few weeks. But I am from Missouri on this one. Remember, Cymer is currently selling the bullets in this war (at least 80% to 90% of them) and if Nikon does not know how to fire the gun there are other combatants who willing and able to step up to the plate. Maybe ASM and others are simply eating Nikon's lunch.