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Politics : John McCain for President -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (5711)	11/4/2008 7:59:21 AM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6579

The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain. The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign... An Obama victory would also owe a great debt to overwhelming support from racial and ethnic minorities. McCain led among white voters, 51% to 44%, but Obama more than made up for that with an 83% to 13% advantage among non-whites, including a 97% to 1% advantage among blacks and a 73% to 24% lead among Hispanics. According to Gallup's final pre-election polls, the last time a presidential candidate won without winning the white vote was Bill Clinton in 1992. That year George Bush narrowly beat Clinton by two points among white voters, 41% to 39%, with 20% supporting third party candidate Ross Perot. Prior to that, Gerald Ford in 1976 received 52% of the white vote to Jimmy Carter's 46%, but Carter won the election with 85% of the non-white vote. While only 4% of voters remain undecided in Gallup's unallocated likely voter model, the final poll estimates that a slightly larger 10% of likely voters still have the potential to either change their mind or make up their mind. Even if McCain converts the vast majority of swing voters, victory for him would be highly unlikely since 51% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for Obama compared with 39% who say they are sure they will vote for McCain.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (5711)	11/4/2008 3:26:05 PM
From: $Mogul	Respond to of 6579

This is all the sample size that you need and the peoples vote will be close to Dixville Notch, NH. The First Election Results Are in Already The polls have already closed in Dixville Notch, NH because all 21 eligible voters have cast their ballots. This village of 75 people traditionally opens the polls at midnight on election day and closes them a few minutes later after the last voter has performed his or her civic duty. Barack Obama got 71% of the vote here today. Dixville Notch is not a good bellwether, however; it has voted solidly Republican for decades. The last Democrat to carry the Notch was Hubert Humphrey in 1968. It is probably not a good start for McCain to have early election day news dominated by a story about a solidly Republican rural village voting overwhelmingly for Obama. electoral-vote.com;