Republicans Turn to Rancor, `Bloodbath' After Election Shutout
Bloomberg - By Catherine Dodge - bloomberg.com
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Four years ago, Republicans were boasting about realignment. Now they are using other `R' words: recrimination, reclamation and rebuilding.
They have lost the White House and their numbers have shrunk in the House and the Senate. More than that, many Republicans say, the party has lost its way.
``It's going to be a bloodbath,' said John Feehery, a Republican strategist. ``Conservatives and moderates are going to go at each other, and economic conservatives are going to go at the social conservatives.'
The party faces rifts in its ranks and possible leadership battles in Congress as it tries to escape from the shadow of the Bush administration, broaden its base and offer alternatives on issues Democrats have dominated: health care, energy, the environment and education.
At the same time, there will be pressure not to betray the party's principles of small government, low taxes and fiscal restraint.
``There will be Republicans saying the public wants us to get things done,' and that means compromising with Democrats, said Kate O'Beirne, president of the conservative National Review Institute, a Washington research organization. ``Then you'll have the alternative: We lost our moorings. We haven't made a case for conservative policy.'
Republicans Marginalized
Not since before 1994, when the party led by Newt Gingrich took control of the House for the first time in 40 years, have Republicans been so marginalized.
There's likely to be plenty of finger-pointing, after Democratic Senator Barack Obama, 47, of Illinois defeated Republican Senator John McCain, 72, of Arizona in the presidential race. John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in California, said some in the party will argue that McCain was inconsistent in his message and not sufficiently conservative, while moderates will push for the party to be more inclusive.
``There will be a significant period of recrimination,' said former Minnesota Representative Vin Weber, 56, a Republican strategist. Republicans will emerge ``depressed,' though many are also ``anxious to get on with rebuilding the party.'
Energy, Entitlements, Economy
Among them is Representative Paul Ryan, a 38-year-old Wisconsin Republican. ``It's time the reformers pushed the status-quo folks out,' Ryan said. ``We have to come up with answers for health care, energy, entitlements and the economy.'
Ryan has drafted a ``Road Map for America's Future' that proposes a mix of market and government incentives to address unfunded entitlements, gaps in health insurance and mounting national debt.
Potential party leaders on the national stage include Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, 37, Gingrich, 65, vice- presidential nominee Sarah Palin, 44, and at least two of McCain's opponents in the primary: former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 61, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, 53.
Former Republican House Majority Leader Dick Armey of Texas said he knows what it's like to rebuild. Armey, a chief author of the ``Contract with America,' which helped House Republicans return to the majority in 1994, now said he expects some younger members in the House to assert themselves in the same way he and former House Speaker Gingrich did.
`New Direction'
``The Republican Party, if it doesn't find a new direction, is going to be in the minority for the rest of their lives,' said Armey, 68.
While there are parallels to the situation Republicans faced in the early 1990s, there are bigger hurdles now, after two terms of an unpopular Bush administration, he said.
``When we took the majority back, there was nobody alive in America who could remember having been disappointed by a Republican majority,' he said. ``That's simply not the case anymore.'
It remains to be seen how the party will emerge from the leadership battles in Congress after its drubbing at the polls. House Republicans have scheduled strategy meetings the week of Nov. 17.
The dispute over McCain's choice of Palin as his running mate provides a preview of the intraparty arguments to come. While the first-term Alaska governor ignited the social conservative base of the party, she drove away moderates and independents.
Record Deficits
In addition, record budget deficits under the Republicans' watch, expansion of the government heath-care plan for senior citizens to include prescription-drug benefits and the recent $700 billion Wall Street rescue plan are all examples of how the party has strayed from its vision, said Representative Jeb Hensarling, a Texas Republican.
``We have to be the party of economic opportunity, accountability, limited government and unlimited freedom,' said Hensarling, 51. Otherwise, ``I'm fearful we could be in the wilderness for a very long period of time.'
Some in the party said his back-to-basics approach isn't enough. Representative Tom Davis of Virginia, a veteran Republican campaign strategist, said the Democrats' victories are less a triumph for their party than a repudiation of President George W. Bush and the Republican leadership. He said the party needs to win back independent voters and demonstrate greater tolerance for social and cultural diversity.
Losing `in Droves'
``We have chased Republicans out of the party; they are becoming independents and we are losing them in droves,' said Davis, 59, a seven-term congressman who is retiring.
The Republican Party's stance on social-conservative issues, crucial to holding onto its evangelical base, isn't appealing to younger voters. They are also deserting the party, which is ``out of step with where the average young person is today,' on these issues, said Scott Keeter, director of survey research at Washington's Pew Research Center.
Reconnecting with those voters will require a balancing act, because Republicans can't afford to alienate evangelical Christians, who will continue to form the party's base.
Immigration is another issue that is sure to split Republican constituencies as the party looks to appeal to Hispanic voters, the biggest and fastest-growing minority group. The Census Bureau estimates they have about doubled to more than 44 million since 1990. Bush won 40 percent of these voters in the 2000 and 2004 elections.
Border Security
Hispanics' support fell to 30 percent for congressional Republicans in 2006, after the party derailed immigration proposals that offered a path to citizenship and instead called for stepped-up border security.
``The Republican Party needs to understand that this is a majority game,' said Feehery. ``White males don't make up a majority anymore, and that's just the bottom line.'
The strategy Republicans adopt depends largely on how Obama and his Democratic majorities govern and what ammunition they provide if they overreach and alienate the moderates who helped them win.
``There isn't anything that puts the Republican Party back together faster than Democrats,' said Joe Gaylord, former executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee and adviser to Gingrich.
At the same time, ``if we fail to have reasonable and plausible alternatives to what's going on now, we're going to be lost for quite a while,' he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Catherine Dodge in Washington, at Cdodge1@bloomberg.net |
