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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (32727)	11/11/2008 6:01:21 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78650

PTR - at what price Buffett sold? I held PTR for a bit, but sold it, since Chinese government price controls oil in China + imposes windfall taxes on oil companies as it wishes. IMHO, this means that investors in PTR are like Buffett says patsies. Of course, the price is now quite attractive, but then price on almost all oil patch is very attractive, so I am not sure why I would buy PTR when I can get best US or Canadian companies for cheap? In Chinese infrastructure, I have some WUHN. Super low liquidity though. Also SDTH, WH. Not sure if Chinese pharmas will benefit from the buildout.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (32727)	11/11/2008 8:23:15 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78650

Here is your list as shown by Yahoo summary. I have added OSKOSHKOSH CP (NYSE:OSK) which acquired JLG one of my favorites. I was surprised to see that OSK's PE is 5.6 and pays almost a 6% dividend. Are you familiar with OSK? All of these picks are selling at less than 10PE and seem to be in the "value" zone. finance.yahoo.com I guess I will have to build a basket of these stocks and start buying some small positions. My criteria is sustained dividend payers greater than 4%. I just do not want to see dividend cuts at this stage. CAT and OSK meet my criteria. Maybe OSK may be the better buy here. finance.yahoo.com^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined 30% of OSK's sales are outside the US and they are working on developing their Chinese sales division. They did complete a $10.6 million sale of snow removal trucks for Beijing International airport recently. Oshkosh Truck Corporation Announces Order for 26 H-Series(TM) Snow Removal Vehicles for Beijing Capital International Airport investor.oshkoshtruckcorporation.com MANITOWOC CO INC (NYSE:MTW) is selling near it's two year low (PE is 3.5) and has the potential to be a multi-bagger. I think I like CAT better as it yields almost 5% and is trading at a 6 PE. It still may be early in the cycle for any of these companies but if an Obama administration passes a US infrastructure spending bill, it could be off to the races for any of these companies. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (32727)	11/26/2008 2:27:36 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78650

Hi Paul - Added a bit more SFL too. The company reports earnings 11/28/2008 and should go xdividend @ $0.58/share. Their dividend is comprised of a fixed amount (past several quarters was $0.50/quarter) and a profit sharing amount. The company should continue to pay their fixed amount each quarter but the profit sharing component may be less or even zero in 2009. It will be interesting to see what their average fixed charter terms are. As of June 30 2008 their gross fixed-rate charter backlog was in excess of $6.5 billion, with average remaining charter term of 10.2 years, or 13.4 years if weighted by charter revenue. Some of their charters have purchase options, which, if exercised, will reduce the fixed charter backlog and average remaining charter term. I am willing to bet that the BDI shupping rates will improve substantially from the current all time lows and the stock will reflect a much higher value for their locked in long term contracts. =============================================================== Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) having a good run today up over 27%. This stock was over sold. They did receive a new Army contract order. Army awards $51 million contract to Oshkosh Wednesday November 26, 12:08 pm ET Oshkosh Defense awarded $51 million contract to provide armor upgrade for military vehicles biz.yahoo.com The stock is still quite cheap especially if they benefit from an Obama administration. The dividend still yields over 6%. I only have a small position so a 30% gain is minor noise to the portfolio but it's nice to see something work. ================================================================ I have been balancing the portfolio to generate a healthy dividend stream ranking my holdings based on dividends generated and adjusting for future cuts. I expect about 6% of my dividend payers to either cut or eliminate their dividend in 2009. My strategy is to load up on companies that pay consistent dividends and are historically undervalued using standard value measures (etc PE). 20% of my top holdings make up about 90% of my dividend income. My equity portfolio has a net yield of around 8% and when combined with my fixed income and cash component my overall yield drops to around 6%. My strategy is to over weight the portfolio with dividend paying stocks (replacing non dividend or very low dividend stocks with those that yield 5% or higher). I plan to maintain healthy cash and fixed income reserves so I can continue to add shares over time. Periodically I will pick up a small cap non dividend payer but feel that as long as these other opportunities exist, I should focus on these first. Therefore, I continue to sell off my non dividend losers (other than some special situations) and focus on pruning a lot of my stragglers. This should result in less stocks held and a more concentrated portfolio of undervalued dividend paying equities that generate at least a 5%-6% dividend yield (up form my previous 2%-3%). EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (32727)	6/28/2010 1:42:47 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78650

I'll reduce my positions in some real estate stocks now. Mainland China/Hong Kong property companies: Closed my position in CDEVY. Partial sale of CHEUY. Been in CDEVY,CHEUY for four years, and that's enough for me - CHEUY price is up only about 5-10 percent from original buys. I got into these stocks after reading of Marty Whitman's buys and his rationale for these property companies. Reading his current quarterly, I see 3rd Ave fund still likes these HK stocks, esp. CHEUY. Their reasoning for CHEUY looks weak to me though -- company prospects are good/controlling stockholder is adding. Well the company prospects were good four years ago too, and nothing much happened over that time as regards the stock. Further, of the several China property stocks mentioned, CHEUY has the highest p/stated bv, and to me, that suggests CHEUY might still have the least potential for price appreciation. (p.9 of presentation: thirdavenuefunds.com ). I intend to continue to hold Wheelock (WHLKF.pk) and a few shares in 2nd tier mainland companies: CHLN and XIN. --- Closed NRF stub. I decided I don't understand the company's business or prospects enough. NRF might be one of those that's too complex for me to ever understand. It's too scary for me to want to make a decent $ commitment, so, other than the good distribution yield, I've got no good reason to keep a stub position in the common shares. (Aside: the preferred shares are followed by Jurgis Bekepuris.)