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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ChanceIs who wrote (113313)11/11/2008 7:18:07 PM
From: stan_hughes11 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206137
 
It's not just that contract carrying cost considerations are steepening the contango -- it's that the outer months are occupied mostly by industry rather than spec players, and they recognize that as fewer and fewer major energy projects get drilled or explored or even planned while everyone languishes here in I-got-no-money-ville, that big fat chicken is going to come home to roost down the road in the form of a bulge of years where no significant new supplies come on-stream for want of not having spent the money to do the upstream work back in 2009, 2010, 2011, etc. -- assuming large untapped supplies are even really there to exploit in the first place (which is a different debate)

We have all seen this movie before where the industry gets decimated and then can't gear back up fast enough when the tide turns -- once the current downturn is over, the next run up ought to be a doozy