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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oblomov who wrote (10535)	11/12/2008 11:07:25 AM
From: kapex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Or the blog that brought it to us. seekingalpha.com

To: Oblomov who wrote (10535)	11/12/2008 9:26:46 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Oblomov, no I had not seen this report, thanks for posting it, just starting to read through it. I was rewatching a video presentation that Joerg Schroder gave to the Market Technician Associates a few years ago. I sat next to him in when he was running the intermediate FX book at Chase in NY back in 1987-1988. I introduced him to Elliott wave and Fibonacci. Much of his talk to the MTA was on longer term cycles in the DJIA and he discussed time cycles as being 1000 days * Pi (ie. 3.141593...) which was his adaptation of Armstrong's 8.6 cycle. he gave a good presentation: bflchinafund.com mta.breezecentral.com 2007 was a year of corrections that was only the point of departure for the Now world famous Centipede Market We're going to need a thread dedicated to exactly how many shoes have dropped before this is over. The link below shows a 309 year cycle that is comprised of 6 51.6 year cycles. contrahour.com I continue to astonished and concerned about how severe this global market blow up is. Lots of real pain out there. John

To: Oblomov who wrote (10535)	11/12/2008 10:16:53 PM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Highly sobering quote from Armstrong's Oct 10th piece: "We are staring into a future where the political-economy and capitalism are at risk in a murky cloud of uncertainty articulated only by George Orwell and Ayn Rand." John

To: Oblomov who wrote (10535)	11/13/2008 9:44:32 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi O, Martin Armstrong's Oct 10th report is really a fascinating piece of scholarship. He packs so much information into it, A great scholar of history. Page 39 and 40 on early examples of derivatives especially the intricacy of the Confederate bonds that could be redeemed in Paris London, Amsterdam and Frankfurt and could be redeemed in British pounds; French Francs or redeemed for physical cotton is innovative and I did not realize the options built into those bonds. I don't know that I agree that the reason that the USD rallied so dramtically from 1980 to 1985 was entirely due to the Europeans expecting a two tier currency with the domestic dollar being the strong unit. The sky high interest rates and large interest rate differentials that accrued currency gains by holding US Dollars and US bonds; coupled with a stock market (liquid asset class appreciating) appreciation had a lot to do with it. And remember that PE multiples will go up significantly as interest rates move downward fro 15% to 7%. No wonder stock prices had to go up, and as the economy grew, real earnings increased as well...... a virtuous cycle. John