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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (10608)	11/19/2008 2:24:11 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Respond to of 33421

JP, I think I started buying physical in 1999..and yes, I got a bunch of it below $300. I think the lowest price I paid was $265/oz. I actually liquidated almost all of it for a pretty decent profit, but way way too early. Right now I am not bullish on gold. I am looking for weakness down into the $500 range. However, the gold miners look surprisingly good. ABX first and then NEM. I'm bullish on the USD though... I will actually be looking for entry in to iron ore miners (BHP, RTP, RIO)....not right this minute...but in the coming months. Also like the coal miners. I think reality is going to sink in with obama that coal provides us with a bridge energy source while other options are developed. If the US is going to pull out of the mideast, we really need to have an energy policy that focuses on energy independence. There is no way around thee fact that coal has to be a major keystone to that end. I also think that CSCO is a buy whenever it is at $17 or less. And I still like BAC and WFC. So, basically I'd like to see gold drop another 30% before it is attractive to me. I can honestly say I have no idea about diamonds and collectable art. you can probably tell that I am not foreseeing a big economic winter right away. However, my investment window is about 8 months now.

To: John Pitera who wrote (10608)	11/19/2008 7:28:41 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

How are diamonds going to increase in price when they can make perfect ones synthetically? I think in 20-years DeBeers is going to be history.

To: John Pitera who wrote (10608)	11/19/2008 7:16:46 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

JP, I am active on a non-financial oriented website as well....it is very interesting that the topic there is very often the economy. Yesterday one of the guys on the site who is known for his belief in conspiracy theories started spouting off about the upcoming Kondratieff Winter. This is the same guy who was insisting that oil was going to $1000/brl when it was at $140/brl. On October 10th he liquidated all of his stock investments and put 100% in gold. If you look at the dates, you will see that he entered his gold investment at right about the worst time. Oh yeah, he is also a strong advocate of purchasing guns, ammo and safes. When he said "safes" i was a bit baffled. But then, watching CNBC last night, what did they run but an ad for safes to protect your wealth. So.....all that to get to this one point. Outside of the fact that I think I have a great contrarian indicator, I am seeing a lot of people who know absolutely nothing about the economy or investing who have become experts on taking defensive investment positions and are predicting the breakdown of society. Back during the tech boom and the aftermath, there were many (including myself) who were expecting a complete meltdown of the equity markets. The things that I learned from the experience are: 1. Every boom is followed by a bust 2. The boom is never as big as the bulls anticipate and the bust is never as bad as the bears anticipate. 3. Short term trading can have some spectacular short term profits, but in the long term the losses can be nothing short of brutal. Just my ramblings for today.