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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (10623)	11/19/2008 9:58:35 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Tom, (JP getting bullish on equities) I had a post here a few weeks ago showing that the credit markets are thawing... that still seems to be the case cnbc.com 3 month Libor back down to 2.17. I think all of this thrashing around that US and global equities are doing is great as it's getting the bottom pickers and traders grinded up and that pretty much has to occur to have at least an intermediate term bottom. I've been talking SPX 775 for a bottom for a few months, and it's taken lots of time and hugh amounts of pain in different equity sectors, as well hugh job losses etc. The SPX will have experienced a near 50% decline at the 775 level and I mentioned as well two hundred points higher from here that it would probably require a real eye jarring 50% decline go dissipate bullish psychology. The daily SPX chart is displaying some very nice bullish momentum divergences on the Daily ROC as well as the RSI etc. As is the DJIA, as is the $compq. The next 20% just about has to be to the upside in my mind on all 3 of those indicies. I know it's crazy talk.... but the lows look very very close to being put into place. These indicies are showing triple momentum price divergences, my wave counting was always looking for the SPX to go look at the 2002 lows at 775, there is lots of panic out there. I can not imagine there are that many outright bullish people right in here. I'm actually starting to get pretty darn bullish on US equities and I'm think days as a time frame for this to occur, not a this quarter or next quarter time frame. So your crazy friend is raving once again ;-) Markets are notorious for overshooting on the upside in mania's and overshooting to the downside in Panics. So it does not make sense to get petulant on any specific price point being the magic level. Time and the impact it has on mass psychology IS the single biggest element. And speaking of a market that has gotten a bit overextended going down. It's got to be getting very close the time to be looking for the low in crude. It's getting overdone on the downside, and market mavens on cnbc and bloomberg are saying well it's at 55 it's been going down so sell it. I see if I can scare up a bit more info on crude. In the bigger Elliott wave analysis of crude it will be back to it's 4th wave of lesser degree at 51.70 I believe it is. That area should be the magic level to see it rebound. Crude's decline has had the tail wind of the uber strong US Dollar, there are limits to the US Dollar upside that are entering into focus here I believe. John