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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (99770)	11/21/2008 2:11:12 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

To ALL; Mish was very right!! Based on recent market actions I arrive to the conclusion that most US Dollar repatriation run it’s course as is most forced deleveraging. Therefore I am going to close the positions where I was long USD and short other assets. Therefore I am long AUD, EUR and looking for going long BRL . Grains will start also moving up within next month, after the results of the Southern Hemisphere crop reports. Buying Sugar and selling storage spreads, also looks very interesting. The markets are in a process of finding a floor so I do expect erratic action for the next month or so. By year end a clearer trend will develop. Stocks in basic energy and minerals seem badly beaten down and can be purchased at very attractive prices The US is in much more trouble that the market is willing to accept – most market participants do not know how to evaluate US debt and risk exposure v. GDP Best of Luck BWDIK Haim

To: NOW who wrote (99770)	11/21/2008 9:10:40 AM
From: bart13	8 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Yes, of course Mish is right about a few things. My problems with him remain that he was wrong for years, spins various facts, and does too many off the cuff and questionable analyses due to various blinders, etc. I pay much more attention to folk who get it right much more consistently, like Harry Schultz or Marc Faber or Don Coxe, etc., and clearly admit when they blow it (with significant humility) too.

To: NOW who wrote (99770)	11/21/2008 10:48:45 AM
From: Horgad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Has he started selling the dollar yet or is he looking for years more of deflation with no currency collapse? And the same question for you if you don't mind. Sincerely. As for myself, I think that risk of an outright currency collapse is going up practically daily and I am acting accordingly.

To: NOW who wrote (99770)	11/21/2008 11:16:54 AM
From: XBrit	1 Recommendation Respond to of 110194

OK. Mish has led me to re-examine my ideas about inflation and fiat money. I always believed that the Fed could monetize debt and create inflation anytime it wanted. My new understanding is that it is possible to have a deleveraging/solvency tsunami so large that even the Fed can't print enough money to do the job. However, I still believe this situation is temporary rather than one which will last for a decade or more. My current guess is about 18 months of more or less deflation, then a very abrupt switch to high INflation as soon as any kind of economic rebound starts. Commodity scarcities and the huge debts of the US govt will inevitably lead things that way.

To: NOW who wrote (99770)	11/21/2008 2:25:26 PM
From: benwood	4 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I for one have never ruled out deflation, and have been pounded now and then for even suggesting that I could not rule it out. GST was the one usually doing the ridicule with an absolute belief that it was impossible. Yes, Mish's been right about some things, some big things. So far gold hasn't panned out so well -- that was one of his ideas, too, right? Russ called that one well. I still think gold will pay off though, and if Mish recommended that (as I recall he did) then he'll be right there, too. Heinz had said some years ago, maybe 4? that it was exceedingly rare that a nation was bailed out of a debt bubble via inflation but instead was battered by deflationary forces, and he also said that he expected Treasuries to make a new low during the K-winter. Mish expressed similar beliefs. The size of the breakdown has been bigger than I expected. The corruption has been far bigger (e.g. the bailout) the hedge funds more reckless than I understood, and the direct market manipulation (e.g. naked shorting -- why is that legal again?? -- bans or select shorts, prefered banks, deliberately misleading information, Paulson lies (e.g. "the bailout money will be fully accounted for to the public). Russ Winter said around June that he expected the next six months to witness the greatest looting in history. The good thing is some sound thinkers were not drowned out, although Russ is mostly pay-per-view now.