Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (43015)	11/23/2008 2:25:40 PM
From: bull_dozer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218023

Thanks for great posts. > He is FDR Jr. but the magnitude is going to be even larger. Do you expect that he would follow similar strategies with regards to gold as that of FDR?

To: gregor_us who wrote (43015)	11/23/2008 2:53:59 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218023

Great post. Obama's statement on debt proves he understands the importance of deflating the mountain of debt. I think eventual inflation is very likely, especially with Summers as the Fed chairman. One of these days the market will realize the irrationality of trashing currencies like the AUD and BRL.

To: gregor_us who wrote (43015)	11/24/2008 12:22:46 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	1 Recommendation Respond to of 218023

gregor, 1. The aggregate debt of the US both public and private is reflated away via a strong inflation that is at least as bad as the late 70's Wages must go up.. Folks spend mostly on essentials ... CAD and AUD could be Swiss Franc like currencies in a global depression. Because of better budget situations ? (Don't know Oz's situation) In a depression commodities won't drive these currencies up. Seems to me the best outcome is a lonooooog period of very low growth... lots of debt being retired, consumer saving in lieu of non essential spending... lower standard of living to be sure... but the present one was an illusion anyway... The Black Swan Having managed to stay pretty whole through this meltdown.. I'm still afraid something wicked this way comes that I do not see to take another stab at portfolio vapourisation and I'm trying to figure out where to dig my next bunker...

To: gregor_us who wrote (43015)	11/24/2008 8:52:38 AM
From: altair19	Respond to of 218023

gregor.us <While I don't know the outcome, I am certain that the Hobble Through attempt is already underway, and that number 1. will be chosen before number 2.> This is a thoughtful and circumspect piece of work. I think you have clearly articulated the confluence of events. Thank you. Altair19

To: gregor_us who wrote (43015)	11/24/2008 10:28:17 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218023

Someone is not buying stuff.. To: Schnullie who wrote (69238) 11/23/2008 4:05:22 PM From: Schnullie Read Replies (1) of 69264 I'm posting an email msg below that really brings home what's going down on Main Street. The apparent story line has to do with not buying gift cards from stores that are going away...the real story line (for me) is the long list of going-away stores.? The list below is staggering! The traditional retail way of doing business was on it's way out and the current economic situation has just taken them out. Arbonne is a fiscally responsible way of doing business for the future! I wanted to give everyone a heads up that if you tend to give gift cards around the holidays, you need to be careful that the cards will be honored after the holidays. Stores that are planning to close after Christmas are still selling the cards through the holidays even though the cards will be worthless January 1. There is no law preventing them from doing this. On the contrary, it is referred to as 'Bankrupcy Planning). Below is a partial list of stores that you need to be cautious about. Circuit City (filed Chapter 11) Ann Taylor- 117 stores nationwide closing Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug ,and Catherine's to close 150 stores nationwide Eddie Bauer to close stores 27 stores and more after January Cache will close all stores Talbots closing down specialty stores J. Jill closing all stores (owned by Talbots) Pacific Sunwear (also owned by Talbots) GAP closing 85 stores Footlocker closing 140 stores mo re to close after January Wickes Furniture closing down Levitz closing down remaining stores Bombay closing remaining stores Zales closing down 82 stores and 105 after January Whitehall closing all stores Piercing Pagoda closing all stores Disney closing 98 stores and will close more after January. Home Depot closing 15 stores 1 in NJ ( New Brunswick ) Macys to close 9 stores after January Linens and Things closing all stores Movie Galley Closing all stores Pep Boys Closing 33 stores Sprint/Nextel closing 133 stores JC Penney closing a number of stores after January Ethan Allen closing down 12 stores. Wilson Leather closing down all stores Sharper Image closing down all stores K B Toys closing 356 stores Loews to close down some stores Dillard's to close some stores Message 25201312

To: gregor_us who wrote (43015)	2/7/2010 9:09:57 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218023

Checking Gregor us "USA Flow Chart" published Nov 2008 ...from this point forward: The US attempts to hobble though the next 2 years with a combination of massive Keynesian spending, partial reflation, a weaker USD for exports, continued losses in the financial system but not alot more nationalization or failures, and lots of loan modifications on mortgages. If this fails, then one of the following must happen: 1. The aggregate debt of the US both public and private is reflated away via a strong inflation that is at least as bad as the late 70's, and there is an open devaluation of the USD. 2. The same quantity of debt is deflated away through total outright default of the kind that is associated with collapse or seizure of the system. While I don't know the outcome, I am certain that the Hobble Through attempt is already underway, and that number 1. will be chosen before number 2. Final thought: consider all those currently advising Obama, including his new Treasury Secty. Then let's hear what Obama said today in his Saturday radio address: “And now we risk falling into a deflationary spiral that could increase our massive debt even further,” the president- elect said. Seems pretty clear to me that Obama has already been made to understand (Volker, Buffet, Rubin, Geithner, Reich, etc) that the Debt is a bomb already and that it goes nuclear if deflation takes hold. As you may have seen in my other post on this topic today, Summers is being brought in to serve in the role of Spending Advisor. This guy has been very clear the last 6 months about his solutions. He is FDR Jr. but the magnitude is going to be even larger.