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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (9468)	12/1/2008 1:22:08 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 41593

Getting close to your SPX 835. The action so far is consistent with the idea that the entire short-covering rally, from the launch on Friday Nov 21st, was driven by bears covering in order to take the holidays off and not worry about it. I did my part, but then got nervous when we butted up against all those downtrend lines and covered a little more. If that were all that was at work, we might actually need another deeper low. Perhaps we could do something nice and obvious like build an ending diagonal? I'm still working with the concept that this is all part of the "big 4"; we'd be in "b of 4" now. If we're pointed up, I think you are right to buy the 835 level. Pullbacks during rallies off lows in the 2001 bear were all quite shallow; you basically had to buy the market price and ride it. Of course, they all eventually gave way to new lows, as will this one. But there's a reasonable chance that we're headed up for the next several weeks, and I at least want to be neutral for that. Will give me peace of mind over the holidays. You boys can play the long side if you wish. I've put a timed lockbox over the "BUY" button - it won't open until a couple of years from now. All available evidence remains consistent with Prechter's K-winter deflationary wipeout scenario. Until I begin to see some whiff of reflation, going long is not an alternative. `BC

To: skinowski who wrote (9468)	12/1/2008 2:44:24 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41593

Almost everywhere now, the down today has pushed into support from the pause on Tuesday. It produces a deep overlap and gives the move from 11/21-11/28 a corrective appearance. Please don't let me talk myself into taking a position again before Jan. 2nd. Please, please, please... <ng>? `BC