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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (29981)	12/2/2008 3:50:17 PM
From: Peter Dierks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

We saw that Obama's bribe of a better job for one of the old farts that should retire has caused him to claim we have been in a recession for a year. Most of us took it with the grain of salt it deserves.

To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (29981)	12/3/2008 2:25:23 PM
From: TimF	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

Not really. Its unofficial. (which doesn't imply that it isn't real) The National Bureau of Economic Research, sounds like it could be the government body behind officially declaring recessions but it isn't. Its a private research organization. Which doesn't imply that when it makes a recession claim it will be less accurate or reliable than the government's official claims, just that it isn't official. It doesn't only use a different methodology (month by month comparisons rather than quarter by quarter), but it uses a different definition for a recession. The official definition is all about GDP. As the article you link to and quote points out the NBER also looks at "personal income, industrial production as well as wholesale and retail sales". Many people erroneously believe that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic activity declining. That not erroneous, that is the formal official definition. That has yet to take place during this recession. Which is why it isn't official. But other top Democrats said this is further proof of the need for another economic stimulus package, which Obama has advocated. If a government action helps, its "see it worked, we should do more". If it can't be shown to have helped than its "we didn't do enough, we need more". The current recession is one of the longest downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930's. One of the longest downturns doesn't mean a whole lot. Its not like there have been a huge number of recessions. There have only been 6 or 7 periods since the 30s that fit the NBER's definition, or the government's definition or both (I think every one that has fit the government's definition has also fit the NBER's). So maybe any of them but the 3 or 4 shortest could reasonably be called "one of the longest".