all good questions. thanks.
<<I do some work in the area of stochastic processes ...>>
I used to be forced to work on error control coding and antenna design, while in school, hated it, and demoted myself to digital hardware (computer structures). zeros and ones.
I believe we are in fact in a zero and one state, or at least i believe we are in a once in five generations biblical lesson about monetary systems and fiat domain, and we are in a once per life opportunity to take or be taken, winners takes enough of all, and losers make up the difference.
<<The argument that the value of gold will increase relative to a collapsing economy has many historical data points in favor of it>>
Given enough historical data points, the argument is in fact not an argument, but merely an observation. But, yes, I know what you meant, and we move onward.
<<Does this argument allow for the manipulation of the price of gold by governments or desperate hedge funds deleveraging out of gold contracts, or the shorting appropriate indexes?>>
Yes, definitely, as historically the governments did quite a bit of market distortion ... by way of decapitation of everyone caught (i) hoarding gold and anything else of non-fiat value, and dicing (ii) all those demanding metals in payment for goods and services.
and yes, again, for we must also tale account that the weak and trembling hands will be offering up their gold at ever decreasing prices just before they perish, for good, and for the good of the receivers of gold.
<<Is the counter argument that eventually gold will find its proper value once the manipulators have exhausted themselves?>>
gold finds its intrinsic value, always, because fiat paper inevitably finds its ordained lack of value, never failing.
<< Is this commodity metal less prone to long-term manipulation than say silver, copper, or platinum?>>
commodity metal? we are not on the same page. useless gold is money. useful iron is commodity.
gold is more prone to manipulation. the officialdom had never decapitated folks for using iron, and certainly never outlawed ownership of copper, as far as i know. and the reason the officialdom do what they do is because they know the truth. we can know the truth as well by observing their multipath behavior that all leads to the same point of arrival - worthless paper money.
<<Is there enough fiat money running through the system to keep gold prices depressed below its “proper” value? In the next few years after the collapse, will there still be groups of men with sufficient funds that might profit from depressing the price of gold?>>
... the more paper money trading paper gold the merrier, as far as i am concerned. i will never fail to put 10-15% of nav in precious metals (platinum, gold) and will occasionally spec silver because as just demonstrated, 100% allocation to any asset class is never a good idea unless one is in fact paying attention and staying agile, which i am not.
<<For myself, I must mathematically model noisy measurement into the physical dynamics of a GPS receiver; however, at some point the consistency of the model will break down when too much multipath enters the system, and the software can no longer offer a position estimate to the user of the device. In this mode, the device has “failed” the user because either the consistency checks have failed or the system has no data to process. At this point my model as failed in practice, but of course, all the theory still applies.>>
... if you believe gold will fail, because this time it is different, you are amongst the most, and the most are financially dying in big numbers, so not precisely a good place to be.
gold is a bit more than a theory. dark matter is a theory. gravity is a fact. apples dropping from trees, an observation.
<<TJ, do you have a price for gold, that if hit, would make you question the suggestion to “buy more gold”?>>
not necessarily, because should gold hit $80 and a cup of coffee hit 2 cents, i would still allocate 10-15% of nav to gold.
gold allocation is not a zero vs one, but a allocation continuum between 0 and 100, percent.
i may change my mind, depending on the precise circumstances, should gold go to 80 and coffee also nears 80 a cup.
cheers, tj
recommendation: buygold
when i make a move towards 20%, i will post on timely basis.
i will shout when i aim for 25%.
i will remain silent when going for 100%.
the times, they will come, because this time is no different than all past times, because gravity works even as quantum mechanics holds true. |
