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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: energyplay who wrote (114610)12/5/2008 8:15:44 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206347
 
HI ep,

Up here the auto industry has an even bigger impact (southern Ontario), and we export 80% south to boot... but each time we throw money at the big three it seems to end up that we get more job cuts, more production cuts, more money requests..

see Roubini's take... ouch..
Message 25228950

The Black Swan



To: energyplay who wrote (114610)12/5/2008 12:52:59 PM
From: Aggie1 Recommendation  Respond to of 206347
 
Hi energyplay,

If there's a bailout - and to me, we should all still have arms firmly folded on this issue - then it should be on terms that closely resemble a structured bankruptcy. I don't buy the idea that an industry titan going through Chapter 11 will translate to vaporized sales. People still need to replace vehicles and many people will still buy American, if they are presented with a competitive product.

There will be a period of weakness, with or without bailout money, with or without BK. I don't think the end result would differ significantly, except that the former is more costly by attempting to defer the pain of Judgment Day.

There is a weak argument being mooted by the suits about manufacturing capacity being vital for defense response - a la WWII. Well.....sure there's a value to that, but is that why we want to bail these mullets out? It's another lame ass excuse if you ask me, especially when trotted out at this juncture - it's the old booga-booga.

Nobody likes to see an industry be decimated and JSP lose his job. But if we are believers in the marketplace, we should refuse to subsidize loser management running unreformed industries when the losers haven't pulled their collective belt in to the second notch yet, in spite of all whining and destruction around them.

Both the management and the unions need to feel the healing pain before I'd agree to loan any of my money to them - and in a bigger sense no market bottom will be in until that pain is felt, IMHO.

Regards to all,

Aggie