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To: carranza2 who wrote (43752)	12/11/2008 6:37:23 PM
From: energyplay	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217769

Besides the greed and stupidity, a key factor is many people believed in something that was not true, or even close to true. I refer to the modeling of markets and prices. Another idea that wasn't true - you could loan money to people with marginal ability to pay, and they would not default in significant numbers. This was dressed up in a lot of politically correct verbiage, so it was much harder to question with out seeming prejudiced. There was the idea that with modern risk controls, I-banks could run at 30:1 leverage instead of 12:1. Third idea was that you could hold rates near 1% for a few quarters without major distortions. This was like a mis judgement of the degree of problem. If you believe that "bad air" causes malaria instead of insect bites spreading the disease, why have a mosquito net or use DDT ?

To: carranza2 who wrote (43752)	12/11/2008 7:18:02 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217769

Morgan Stanley’s 2012 hindsight list Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Dec 11 13:28. ftalphaville.ft.com Morgan Stanley has polled its global analysts to identify the top 50 companies that, come 2012, you’d have wanted to have had exposure to. Caution: MS is not asserting these stocks are all buys now, it is instead taking a longer-term view. As they explain: Our analysts’ strengths lie in understanding their industries and what will differentiate winners from losers as industry value chains evolve. It is these insights we seek to exploit in this report. Here’s the list: ...

To: carranza2 who wrote (43752)	12/11/2008 11:09:59 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217769

"Corn tumbled 58% from a June record as slowing global economic growth damped demand for use in livestock feed and fuel." Elmat: The bubble scared exporting countries into cutting exports: "Chinese corn exports plunged 96 percent to 210,000 tons between January and October, according to customs data, after the government stopped issuing export quotas in order to increase domestic supplies." Elmat: Now government -not only in China- need to raise farmers' income need to increase exports as factories stop working flatout income. Scarcity was false. Corn will flown into the market. bloomberg.com Please note that agriculture is the most distorted economic sector in the world due to government intervention. Now -another government intervention- corn ethanol will get a break as corn prices keeps down.

To: carranza2 who wrote (43752)	12/12/2008 3:33:19 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217769

just in in-tray From a friend: Dear Marc, An interesting dinner of 300 people I had yesterday with officials and legislators of the EU. At my table, I was suddenly speaking to one of them about gold and your analysis (she knew your work quite well), and she (a prominent head of a parliamentary commission in the European Parliament, Strasburg , France ) replied to me : "You know we seriously talk about gold being put back in a basket of currencies, or backing the Euro in some way." I said : "Oh, you don't say ?"… Yours, Johan