Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (117257)	12/13/2008 2:46:15 PM
From: re3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

how might hoping to wait on capital gains affect long bond prices --- if any ? will some people benefit if they wait to sell their long bonds till the first biz day of jan/09 --- or is that not a factor ? thx

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (117257)	12/13/2008 11:11:42 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Knighty, thanks for the TBT heads up. does TBT have friction for long term holds? i'm not sure if you read the recent article posted here about the causes of the crash, but i heard something new. basically, due to capital gains tax cuts, there was a huge incentive to borrow (and deduct) money to bet on the market going up. you get the 35-45% tax break on the borrowed money and only pay 15% - 24% on your gains. funny, i don't ever recall the lower the cap gains crowd ever mentioning this reality in their sales pitch. so, the lowered capital gains tax rate ended up playing a significant role in the blow up of the entire world's economy. just grand.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (117257)	12/13/2008 11:16:42 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Knighty, i heard this guy on the radio today... trendsresearch.com his predictions for next year are ghastly. he says we are worse off than in the 30s because we don't have any kind of manufacturing base to pull us out of this disaster - it was mostly shipped overseas. 70% of our gdp is consumer based - and the consumer is running for the hills. we can make and sell stuff to get the ship righted... big trouble. he had an interesting take, but it was all doom and gloom.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (117257)	12/14/2008 8:02:47 PM
From: S. maltophilia	1 Recommendation Respond to of 132070

A possible moncky wrench: jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com If real US bonds stay senior to Benniebonds, their yields stay low, at least for a while, and Fed paper takes on the appearance of Zimbabwe debt. I was thinking bearish thoughts a bit early, like 120 basis points ago. At least the calls I bought are still offered at 5.<g>

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (117257)	12/16/2008 4:16:33 PM
From: hdl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

a few times i read in a few magazines where tbts were recommended. i didn't like the .95% expense ratio. but, i bought after your post and am down so far. meanwhile, tips are up.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (117257)	12/17/2008 12:47:50 PM
From: GuinnessGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Mike, you wrote- "It is TBT time. I have not exactly sparkled selling the long bond short, but I am loading up for bear right now. The yields on the 20 year bond are ridiculously low due to the flight to quality." I hope you only had your first third on that bet. Wow! Just when you think things can't get more insane, they do. But that shouldn't be so surprising these days. craig