i am at a secure and very green location, high above a gorge, looking out at green, hearing water, feeling relaxed, and looking forward to a day of contemplative work, good ice coffee, healthy snacks, 2:00pm massage by beautiful wian and 6 more days of same
the compound is about the size of half a football field, meant for one household, complete with lots of roofed but open air living space and a central pool, as well as plenty of secret nooks and cozy lookout points
on the market, i tend not to pay that much attention once a lt position is set, with lt defined as 3-6 months sometims, and 6-12 at others, else stands good chance of whiplash even when already in alignment with the force
yes, i know, gdx is down, paas is down, but above my average buy points, and chf is up, way upm and solar tan is up, even if only a little
yes, i am certain, the dollar will dance the death spiral and then do the right thing, even if only allowed to do right by gold.
as to the bear market, now that aig, ge, their respective industries, the entire auto industry has gotten well beaten up, i am satisfied per original 2001 script, but i fear that events have now gotten out of control, and so we can look forward to teotwawki with much more certainty.
just in in-tray
if i may expand a bit on this - i do not think we have a mere 'currency crisis' in the sense of one specific currency of import being in crisis mode versus other, more sound currencies. i believe we have a - still budding - crisis of the entire fiat money system at our hands here.
it may not have fully penetrated the market mind yet, but that is what it is.
we see the first warning signs, which i will list here:
1. physical gold demand has exploded to record highs in spite of a plunge in commodity prices
2. gold has been soaring against commodities at a speed that was last seen in 1979.
3. gold has begun to trade in backwardation; now, some of this is technical, and the backwardation is not yet deep or pronounced enough to definitively declare the system to be in crisis - but it should actually never go into backwardation, and definitely not for any prolonged period. this simply can not happen, normally, if one thinks about it.
4. currencies have begun to gyrate wildly against each other. some of the recent currency moves speak of stresses that are possibly getting out of hand. it's not just the swissie - the breathtaking move in the yen is also a bit disconcerting by now. this is not how major currencies normally behave.
5. the moves in treasury debt are actually indicative of a flight of deposits from the banking system. similarly, the rise in currency in circulation shows the same effect at work.
6. the asset side of the Fed's balance sheet (and the ECB's is not far behind) consists of more and more garbage. contrary to what the Fed claims, it is increasingly exposed to credit risk - a risk that keeps rising as far as i can tell. as i said yesterday, i name this the 'assignat problem'.
since the liabilities of the Fed consist mostly of the dollars it issues, it is not enitrely irrelevant what its assets actually are, especially given that it has decided it won't tell.
7. the appended charts do show a system in crisis - in an unprecedented crisis actually. as i said, the market mind has not yet recognized in full what it means. it is probably no coincidence though that the gold hoard of gold ETFs keeps increasing regardless of what the gold price does, and that the price of gold itself has begun to rise, and appears ever more uncorrelated to other markets in the short term.
8. this does of course not mean that gold price can not correct here...in fact i wouldn't be terribly surprised if it did (870-880 is a minor resistance zone, and 920-930 a major one); on the other hand, one can never be sure if not a sudden recognition move is in the offing. |
