To: elmatador who wrote (44154 ) 12/22/2008 7:57:53 AM From: Haim R. Branisteanu Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217679 Brazil Central Bank Projects 2009 Econ Growth At 3.2% (Updates with additional details on forecasts and adds comments from the central bank) BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--Brazilian economic growth should decelerate sharply in the coming year due to the global slowdown in economic activity, Brazil's central bank said Monday in its fourth quarter inflation report. The bank projected growth would slow to 3.2% in 2009 from 5.6% growth projected for this year. The 2008 growth projection was revised upward from a previous forecast of 5.0%. The bank said growth through the third quarter of this year remained strong, but added that the local economy should see a sharp slowdown as a deceleration in international economic activity broadens. Brazil's economy grew 6.8% in the third quarter from the same period a year ago. However, the economy has since shown signs of slowing, including decelerating industrial production, employment and sales. In its report Monday, the bank identified three principal factors that should guide its policy efforts; including the duration and magnitude of the world crisis, risks associated with the pass-through effect of recent strong currency depreciation and the resilience of domestic economic activity. The bank said a recent steep decline in global oil prices and an accompanying reduction in other key commodities prices should have a favorable impact on local inflation. At the same time, it said heightened investor risk aversion and slowing investment prompted by the global credit crisis were likely to bring slowing local growth. The bank, nonetheless, said it foresaw an increase in regulated public service costs in Brazil due to price volatility in commodities early in 2008. "The acceleration of wholesale price indices registered in 2008, alongside the risk factor of inflation in non-regulated prices, probably will translate into larger increases in regulated prices in 2009," the bank said. "The net effect of factors cited above, as well as their dynamics, are difficult to measure, such that the uncertainties in relation to the trajectory of inflation throughout the coming quarters has increased substantially since the last inflation report." Given these factors, the bank said it was focusing its attention on recent foreign exchange depreciation as the main short-term risk to the country's inflation outlook, hinting it would remain especially vigilant to control pass-through effects from a weakened currency. "It's up to monetary policy to avoid that price movements due to currency depreciation contaminate inflation expectations or translate into second order effects from attempts at realignment of prices, including salaries, to values seen before depreciation," the bank said. Brazil's currency, the real, has weakened by more than 30% since August, when it reached a nine-year high against the dollar. Amid slowing growth conditions, meanwhile, the central bank revised its forecast for 2009 IPCA consumer price inflation downward to 4.7% from 4.8%. It projected 2010 inflation at 4.2%. It also revised its 2008 inflation projection upward to 6.2% from 6.1% seen previously in reaction to recent strong domestic demand and inflation pressure. Brazil's government has set annual IPCA inflation targets of 4.5% for 2008, 2009 and 2010. Brazil posted 12-month IPCA consumer price inflation of 6.4% through the end of November. -By Gerald Jeffris, Dow Jones Newswires; (5561) 3335-0832, gerald.jeffris@dowjones.com