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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42401)	12/31/2008 12:57:40 PM
From: Woody_Nickels	Respond to of 95520

Jacob, that's a LOT of cash and cash-equivalents, a good portion of which will eventually return to the markets, and float all boats. I'm not holding my breath for that to happen. This is one nasty market, and people are scared. Fools like me try to buy in times like these, though. Woody

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42401)	12/31/2008 12:57:43 PM
From: Woody_Nickels	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95520

Just a note on my current strategy. I went to cash in early 2007 and re-entered this past fall, with maybe 75% of my funds. Since interest rates are so low on the cash, I've been selling far out of the money puts on stocks I'd like to own, generating 3%-6% interest over short-term periods of 30-60 days. If the market continues to tank, I'll pick up shares much lower from the puts, and if the market rises, I still have some income, AND my existing positions should prosper. What's not to like? Woody

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42401)	1/2/2009 5:35:32 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

VIX still falling, SOX and SPX above their 50dma. All nice ST bullish indicators. But... The decline in U.S. manufacturing deepened in December as demand for such products as cars, appliances and furniture reached the lowest level since at least 1948, signaling further cutbacks in factory jobs and production this year. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 32.4, below economists’ forecasts and the lowest level since 1980, from 36.2 the prior month. Readings less than 50 signal contraction. The group’s new-orders measure reached the lowest level on record and prices slid the most since 1949. bloomberg.com Stocks lost 42 percent of their value in 2008, as calculated by the MSCI world index, erasing more than $29 trillion in value and all of the gains made since 2003. nytimes.com Berkshire Hathaway Inc. slumped 32 percent last year, the worst performance in more than three decades... The company still beat the 38 percent tumble of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index bloomberg.com

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42401)	1/6/2009 4:57:42 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95520

Savings rate: U.S. household debt, which has been growing steadily since the Federal Reserve began tracking it in 1952, declined for the first time in the third quarter of 2008. In the same quarter, U.S. consumer spending growth declined for the first time in 17 years. That has resulted in a rise in the personal saving rate, which the government calculates as the difference between earnings and expenditures. In recent years, as Americans spent more than they earned, the personal saving rate dipped below zero. Economists now expect the rate to rebound to 3% to 5%, or even higher, in 2009... The annual personal saving rate...averaged around 10% during the early 1980s, when the economy was in a severe double-dip recession. It then began to fall steadily, even as the economy weathered two more recessions, averaging about 7% around the time of the 1990-91 recession, then falling below 2% for the first time in 2001. It averaged about 0.6% from 2004-07. (The only time the annual saving rate went negative was in 1932 and 1933, rates of -0.9% and -1.5% respectively.) blogs.wsj.com my comment: I expect a savings rate of 5% or more, and continuing declines in real wages, for the next several years. That implies no quick or big rebound in consumer spending. If the government prints enough dollars to cause a sharp rebound in consumer spending, the result will be 5-10% inflation. disclosure: I'm still slowly selling this rally. Sold more KLIC today at $2.17-2.20. The sharper and quicker this rally is, the more I'm convinced it's a bear market rally. If ASML hits 21, and AMAT hits 14, I'll have sold enough to be off margin.