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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Woody_Nickels who wrote (42413)	12/31/2008 1:06:58 PM
From: The Ox	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95520

Fools like me try to buy in times like these, though. If your time horizon is beyond a few weeks, why not buy something when everyone and their brother are either out of the market or still selling? If you have capital you can risk, then take some risks, imo. No reason to bet the farm but there are plenty of reasons to buy some...if you have a long term horizon. The more I keep reading about how awful things are, the more I read about how even more awful thing are going to get, the more I feel comfortable nibbling here and there. There are some truly amazing bargains out there. The trouble is guessing which ones are going to move sooner rather then later. But move up they will, eventually. If you buy quality and can be patient, then you should do very well down the road. Don't fall in love with a stock. Don't get broadsided by bad news, as there will be plenty of that ahead. When everyone is sticking their collective heads in the sand, its usually a good time to be scouting the horizon. fwiw...just my opinion...don't risk more then you can afford to lose, and all that type of stuff!!! TO

To: Woody_Nickels who wrote (42413)	12/31/2008 8:49:20 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

<selling far out of the money puts on stocks I'd like to own> Sounds like a good strategy. With the VIX so high, the time value of options is higher than normal. I'm assuming you have enough cash, to buy everything that might be put to you. Although the VIX is down to 40, I expect more spikes in the VIX in 2009. Too many people, companies, and nations have based their actions on assumptions/plans that have turned out to be radically wrong. This has created stresses, which are still being worked out. There are 1 billion hungry people in the world today, and they are going to get hungrier (and more desperate) in 2009. We could easily have an "exogenous shock" that abruptly brings the markets to new lows in 2009. I'm not predicting this, I'm just saying it's a possibility we need to be prepared for. Anyone using margin (as I am), should make sure they won't have a margin call, if the SOX hits 100. If every central bank on earth reduces interest rates to zero, and every nation tries to devalue their currency, those trillions in sideline cash earn nothing, and lose purchasing power. If every government prints fiat cash, and shovels it with abandon into every economic hole (including the various bottomless pits), the result will be inflation. This will motivate the sideline cash to do something...anything.