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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42433)	1/1/2009 7:44:35 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95587

HI Don, Happy New Year! As always thank you for your excellent analysis,graphs,and summary. I will make my usual comment that tech gets painted with far too wide a brush. Semi chips have 2 huge groups: Logic and memory Both are seen to be in a transitionary mode. Memory is transitioning from hard drives to software drives and Logic is transitioning to 32nm and SOC from generally die shrinks down to the 45nm being accomplished in 08. As always the leading edge is a game for a select few, But as leading edge is accompplished the second tier will closely follow so as not to get too far behind.The last any 2nd tier IC maker wants to become is a commodity maker. This year will start slowly and I suspect much like the turn we saw in 98 we may well see in late 2009 or 2010. Just a thought and have a great New Year. Bob

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42433)	1/2/2009 9:32:18 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95587

A drop of 50% from 2008 would put 2009 Semi billings in the $6 to $7 Billion dollar range! This would be over 25% below 2003's #s. OUCH! Talk about bearish... Now the question that comes up next, imo. Has most of this been priced in? Looking at the chart in your post, Don, the drop in 2002 was based on the growing realization that there would be a serious, extended collapse in the SCE market during 2002-2003. Billings fell from $17B in 2001 to $10B in 2003. Once the market realized that 2003 wasn't going to be the end of the industry, the stocks rebounded. Fast forward and billings have fallen from $18.5B in 2007 to $12.5B in the first 11 months of 2008. Another 50% drop would imply half of $13B(ish) or $6.5B(ish). We still have everyone looking down into 2009. At some point we need to look past this into 2010. jmo TO