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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Senior who wrote (33189)1/3/2009 11:20:03 AM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 78615
 
COV is a good one that I missed - My GTC limit order was too low. FWIW health care is not immune. Hospitals are under tremendous pressure due to more uninsured patient etc. In the last Baron, one analyst mentioned SYK and particularly HRC (Hill Rom) as shorts, since he believes that hospital beds are a non-critical item for hospitals and such they can reduce Capex substantially without too much impact. HRC is a spinoff that I am following as a pot. buy but I got more careful after reading this article.

CAH could be impacted too but to a much lesser effect - a lot of their business are consumables. MCK should be OK. All of those are single digit growers while ESRX and peers are double digit growers and such deserve a premium.

Earnings and outlook for next quarter will be a big test for the bulls. i think they are way too high overall. Financials are a wildcard - my guess is as a group they loose money in Y2009. Some weaker players like C probably won't make it and will be nationalized.