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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (33190)	1/3/2009 11:32:46 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78614

I am soliciting input for short plays ideas for Y2009. Some stuff I am tossing out: SPG (51.5$) - Mall giant with a still rich valuation. Decently financed but FFO will see headwinds for a couple of years. Increased cost of funding. Value of real estate portfolio may shrink such that debt is 70% of EV. HDB (76.7$)- Indian bank trading at 19x forward earnings. RE boom in India is popping and banks like HDB will be left holding the bag. FWIW i read about a year ago that RE in Mumbai was just as expensive as in western capitals like Paris, London by some measures. the recent attacks will not help either. TBT (39$)- ETF short play on treasuries.Inflation worries or worries about high debt load will cause a rise in yield for treasuries. XOM (81.6$) - too expensive for 40$ crude. Use as a hedge to balance out long position in cheaper oil stocks.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (33190)	1/14/2009 2:13:16 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78614

Not getting as many fills as I would have expected today. Perhaps I should be grateful for that. Anyway, small adds to COV, PG, SE. finance.yahoo.com

To: Spekulatius who wrote (33190)	4/3/2009 11:49:43 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78614

Re-Entry into COV @32$, MCLK @33.5$. COV is a fairly inexpensive medical stock. PE around is 10-10.5. Balance sheet looks good (A- rating). management did a good job after the Spinoff from Tyco, IMO. They grew the business, increased gross margins and boosted the skimpy R&D spending. Their products are mostly considered non-Capex or consumables so my guess is that they should be fairly recession resistant unless hospitals start to re-use needles and such <ng>. There is a very transparent and straightforward looking compensation structure for management. The chart looks like I may be able to average down though. library.corporate-ir.net I also bought MCK, the pharma distributor. This is a re-entry after a roundtrip least year. I consider this a recession resistant business. there is some concern about customer bankruptcies (RAD) though. I think they can manage that and in any case the business is not going away. LT, everything else being equal, the growth of the distributors like MCK or CAH should match the overall health care product growth.