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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (33191)	1/3/2009 2:42:42 PM
From: anializer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78613

LNG comes to mind as a Co destined to retest a buck. I think the balance sheet and key statistics as well as the earnings reports speak to a Co. that is totally worthless. Insiders have been selling and indemnifying themselves. finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com stockcharts.com[w,a]daolyiay[dd][pc13!c40!f][vc60][iut!ud20!uh14,3

To: Spekulatius who wrote (33191)	1/3/2009 4:05:03 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78613

OT. Short plays. I looked around in the past hour and I don't see many companies with both expectations of lousy business in '09 yet still with high stock price. Here are some ideas I've come up with. XOM. A trading short. Maybe paired with a buy on a lower p/e oil service stock. At current $81 price, I'm out of XOM. Maybe a reenter ten points lower. I could consider a small short at current price. BBBY. Have taken my lumps on this one recently. Still might be overpriced given housing slump and consumer cutbacks. No ltd and the main competitor has already folded (bk), so BBBY will be around for a while. But in '09, the stock may have recovered too much now, and could drop back. I might consider a small short at current price. DOW. Dow is the second largest chemical manufacturer in the world (after BASF). Have taken my lumps on DOW now too. Drat -- So much for what I believed was a long-term holding. It seems to me management has really put this good company in jeopardy by tying DOW to an apparently ironclad expensive purchase of Rohm and Haas while leaving DOW exposed to another deal with Kuwait which was supposed to provide funding for the R&H purchase. The Kuwaitis passed, and now DOW is in a predicament. Enough so, that I expect the generous DOW dividend could be cut. Stock is down, but maybe not down enough to reflect the negative headlines that will be generated as this thing works itself out. Could still be a trading short. (DOW bod might fire the ceo; that could pop the stock. I do not know.) The above reflect some of my biases. I've sold these stocks, and once in a while I get the feeling with such like the above, that if I'm not willing to own the stocks at their relatively high prices or in their scary circumstances, maybe I should keep going and after selling, turn around and short some shares. OTOH, as I sometimes post here, if I can't hold on and finally give up on the stock(s), maybe that's a sign the bottom is near, and people might want to consider using my sell as an indicator that they might want to consider the stock(s) as a buy candidate. finance.yahoo.com

To: Spekulatius who wrote (33191)	1/4/2009 2:28:04 PM
From: Oblomov	Respond to of 78613

I think that [t]WY[/t] and [t]DMND[/t] are good shorts here. WY because of the housing contruction slump, and DMND because of the change in consumer spending patterns. DMND recently laid off 10% of their workforce.