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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tyc:> who wrote (62662)	1/3/2009 5:46:42 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78426

I think the reaction in copper prices was normal in reaction to a huge decline in 2008. I think the decline ain't over. Copper should go sub $1 as the global recession intensifies. Gold and to a lesser degree silver, is the only secular bull market still intact.

To: tyc:> who wrote (62662)	1/3/2009 6:38:14 PM
From: Valuepro	Respond to of 78426

I agree about the near term future for base metals being an unknown, and that these metals sold off far beyond reason. While the recovery of the last few days has been stunning, I read that it is at least partly based on short covering, and year end re-calculating of futures indexing, whatever that is. Now I don't pretend to understand the futures markets. They are too deeply complex and manipulated for my taste. Anyway, and for whatever the reason, here is a summary of action in base metals. Lead is up 33.33 percent from it's low on Dec. 25; Nickel is up 35.74 percent from the low 1st week of Dec.; Zinc is up 18.7 percent from the low in the 2nd week of Dec.; Copper is 14.18 percent from it's low near the end of Dec.; Al is up 7.99 percent from it's low in mid December. Looking at a copper/gold ratio, it was 200 pounds to the ounce not long ago. As of the end of the year, it was 670 pounds to the ounce. Both figures are extremes, so one of these needs to adjust, or both need to move toward the middle. FWIW, I've also been reading that prices for certain steel products have been heading up for January and February deliveries. Further, an international conference for the steel industry concluded recently in Paris with a pole of participants. The general expectation was for the recovery in steel prices to V-shaped in the New Year. This aside, speculation about prices for sea borne iron ore (annual contracts for the high quality stuff in vast amounts) for sale to Asia are expected to drop 30 to 20 percent in the coming year, depending on which side of this story is doing the talking. Even a 30 percent roll back will not erase the gains from last year, which were up on average about 85 percent. I don't have the precise number, but I think the gains over the last five years has been more than a few hundred percent, perhaps around 600 percent. It looks as if the big contracts for iron will have held their price levels at least nearly as well as gold (compared to it's high in the last year). VP in AZ