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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (174948)1/4/2009 3:21:09 AM
From: Travis_BickleRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 306849
 
They need to start over with the SEC, run it more like the justice department which historically has hired good people and took some pride in its work. The SEC = low pay and no effort to hire the best and the brightest.



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (174948)1/4/2009 3:56:55 AM
From: Sea OtterRespond to of 306849
 
That article should be made required reading for every American.



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (174948)1/4/2009 5:26:14 PM
From: PerspectiveRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 306849
 
Good Abelson:

online.barrons.com

LEST YOU SHRUG OFF our concerns about the economy and the stock market as just another of our patented rants, we're enlisting the views of Jay and David Levy, proprietors of the Levy Forecasts, whose predictions of the decline and fall of the economy have been right as rain. Father and son, they've been at this game a lot of years, and while not infallible (a quality restricted to popes and financial journalists), they have a truly extraordinary record of being right.

In a nutshell, they think most people, from consumers to CEOs and investors to, yes, economists, are way too optimistic. Even many of those who have come to recognize how the credit crunch has hurt the economy, the Levys say, fail to grasp that the "damage to the economy will rapidly accelerate the financial crisis."


This is a major point that is completely missed by the consensus as far as I can tell. The financial crisis produced damage to the economy that we are seeing now. However, the damage to the economy will, in turn, produce damage to the financial markets. Its a reinforcing feedback loop. That is why financial trends run far longer and deeper than even the best prognosticators anticipate.

`BC



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (174948)1/4/2009 7:56:54 PM
From: John KoligmanRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
There was also a good article on the risk models that WS used leading up to the credit crisis, in addition to an interview with Taleb of black swan fame in the Sunday NY Times magazine, the article was titled 'Risk' and written by NY Times business writer Joe Nocera..

John