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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChanceIs who wrote (175446)	1/6/2009 11:58:50 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 306849

<<Again I am in the Roubini camp.....bear trap rally here and then down another 15-20% on the broad equities.>> Yup, me too. You mean "bull trap" by the way. Actually at this point I've been obsessively reading every intelligent word written, and I think I have a crystal clear road map for the next 10 years. 2009 is a vicious deflationary recession, with a new bottom for stocks around 600 SPX. 2010, housing stabilizes mid-year. We have a year of flat GDP and increasing unemployment that still feels like a recession. CPI is flat. There is a short and tepid bull market, although the SP500 will remain capped at 1200 or so for 10 years thereafter. 2011 and forward, inflation gradually rises (as the dollar and long bond fall). We have inflation at 6-8%/yr for 10 years, which the Fed essentially engineers (they don't do anything to stop it). We re-live the 70's, with stagflation and a substantial decrease in living standards. But the trade deficit gets fixed and the debts are inflated away. This must happen, because it's the only non-catastrophic way out for the US. At the end, we're all a lot poorer, but we're finally ready for another Volker and another Morning in America. LOL, of course if it's that clear to me it's probably completely wrong.

To: ChanceIs who wrote (175446)	1/9/2009 9:22:31 AM
From: Smiling Bob	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

KB Home's 4Q loss narrows, home demand stays weak KB Home reports narrower loss in 4th-qtr, but lower home demand continues to weigh on results * Friday January 9, 2009, 9:13 am EST LOS ANGELES (AP) -- KB Home, one of the nation's largest homebuilders, reported a sharply narrower fourth-quarter loss on Friday, but home demand weakened significantly and the company expects the industry will continue to struggle in 2009. For the quarter ended Nov. 30, losses shrank to $307.3 million, or $3.96 per share, from a year-ago loss of $772.7 million, or $9.99 per share, a year ago. Latest-quarter results included pretax charges of $266 million to write down inventory, among other charges. Lower housing revenue drove sales down 56 percent to $919 million from $2.07 billion in the 2007 fourth quarter. The average sale price of its homes slipped 6 percent to $232,200 in the fourth quarter, from $247,800 in the prior year. Homes delivered totaled 3,912 in the quarter, well less than half the 8,132 delivered a year earlier as foreclosures mounted and mortgage lending dried up. KB Home also noted it made "strategic reductions" in active selling during the period. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected Los Angeles-based KB Home to post a loss of $1.23 per share on revenue of $792.8 million. Excluding write downs of land values, President and Chief Executive Jeffrey Mezger said KB Home achieved positive operating income for the first time in five quarters. The company's selling, general and administrative expenses dropped 47 percent to $121.1 million as KB Home exited some markets, consolidated operating divisions, cut jobs and reduced overhead. "Housing market and general economic conditions in 2009 are expected to remain difficult or possibly worsen as the timing of any meaningful recovery for the homebuilding industry remains uncertain," Mezger warned in a statement. He said KB Home is "not counting on" federal stimulus to support the housing market, although the company would "welcome" a package. For the full fiscal year, the company's losses widened to $976.1 million, or $12.59 per share, from $929.4 million, or $12.04 per share, in 2007. The company's prior-year loss included income of $485.4 million, or $6.29 per share, from its discontinued operations in France. Full-year revenue dropped 53 percent to $3.03 billion, from $6.42 billion in fiscal 2007. Analysts had forecast fiscal 2008 losses of $9.47 per share on revenue of $2.9 billion. KB Home delivered 12,438 homes in fiscal 2008 at an average price of $236,400, down from 23,743 homes delivered at an average of about $261,600 in fiscal 2007. Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.