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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (11283)	1/11/2009 10:03:22 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hey John, it looks like all of the yields on the various treasuries (10, 20 and 30) have bottomed. Will the fed follow suit and raise their interest rate targets? Sounds like bonds might be taking a beating soon, eh? does this mean it is time to lock in low interest rates on the mortgage? The S&P had a nice triple top break, followed by a high pole warning....not such a good thing....bull trappish looking. Similar sitch for the Naz with a little bit of a bullish triangle breakout with a high pole.... BP for the NYSE composite is pretty high at 66%, but that's not exceedingly high and nor has it showed signs of weakening. Status is bull confirmed. BP for Naz is also bull confirmed at 46...so that's still not in the stratosphere and again, no signs of weakness. BP for SPX got as high as 72 and is now 69, so it is definitely getting toppy, but still hasn't reversed. So, I think we are nearing a top, but not there yet. I'm guessing that rising interest rates can eventually have a negative effect on equities. Crude oil tried to bounce back, but I see that failing. I have a target around $30/brl. I believe that lower oil prices will have have a longer term positive effect on the economy as a whole. I was thinking that Obamarama would set off a multi-month rally in equities, but I am beginning to think that it will be a top with a pretty decent pullback. so...short term targets...S&P 965 (that's where the BRL is on the 5pt chart) followed by a fall to 790ish. Gold is looking very toppy to me....BSL at 820ish. But my target is around 730ish. USD index looks like it has bottomed and will be building a base for between 80 and 92 for a while. So......I still don't see real blood in the streets in the next 6 months, but I also think that equities are risky today. The Dow, S&P and Naz are all giving me the same signal right now...cautious but not panicked.

To: John Pitera who wrote (11283)	2/10/2009 2:15:01 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

$TNX---- 10 year note yield --- responding to the post I made on January 11th. Credibility is building that we saw the long term low in the 10 year US T-Note yield back on Dec 18th at 2.038 Gann would have applauded the long term low occurring equidistance in time between to the Saros Moon cycle apogee and the Winter Solstice Turning point on Dec 21st. In any event the 10 year note yield has touched north of 3% Lets see if we can take out the Dec 18th low. With the Stimulus, I don't believe this to be possible. Caveat....market can do anything. Yet I am appreciative of the TNX moving in the direction of my analysis since January 11th. John