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To: FJB who wrote (1212)10/24/1997 2:13:00 PM
From: Juniper  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 2946
 
All-
I bought more stock this morning, reasoning that it was getting beaten down by association rather than deservedly, and that the price was at an attractive level for me to add a position. The downgrade USB gave on the sector this morning, whether you agree with it or not, was based on weakness in Asia reducing semi-equip purchases. SVGI has only about 10% of sales to far east and pacific rim, which for this once may be a blessing. Exposure is relatively small. Also, SVGI has rapidly descended into prices where book value provides some relief to downside risk. I would be surprised to see the stock much below 18 in a potential worst case scenario.
The new news I see is that Intel has delayed opening a fab in texas for logic chips, switching the logic chip production instead to a fab in Israel that was intended for flash memory production. The Micrascans are used for Pentiums(and future logic chips likely) so this is no change for SVGI. I'm not sure if there is any use or intended use of Micrascans for flash memory, but regardless, it is an industry negative to see fabs delayed and another fear factor after the industry downgrade.
However, right now it's good to remember that the upside factors remain strong, with better prices - recent BTB for industry was a historic high for Sept, the large ramp up of Micrascan capacity is on track as of the last time it was mentioned, demand for DUV tools is strong as the Cymer CC stated, and the only release recently from SVGI has been positive (sales made). The outrageously positive scenario for SVGI based on forecast production of 200 MS/year remains as valid as ever unless we get news to the contrary.
DAK - if you're reading, I'd appreciate your take on SVGI LEAPS, particularly the March 30s. I've heard you say at times before that the options were 'expensive' or 'cheap', but I don't know how you judge this. Can you explain? Thanks
J



To: FJB who wrote (1212)10/24/1997 3:33:00 PM
From: Ritz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2946
 
Robert:

Thanks for the link. Just because IBM is selling its stake in SVGI is no indication of IBM's losing confidence in SVGI's product. The 500k or so shares were received in return for IBM's having helped finance the Micrascan III R&D. They did not mean to be, and never wanted to be, an investor in SVGI stock.

-Ritz

P.S. I told you guys SVGI would drop back below 29: techstocks.com
Didn't think it would take 3 months though! Back in big time at 26.....