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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (45230)	1/13/2009 2:03:15 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217739

never ever thought 2009 would be an up year i thought jan-mar would be up but, sure doesn't look it now just in in-tray We expect the current economic deceleration in China to be worse than that during the Asian Financial Crisis. We forecast GDP growth to decline from 9% in 2008 to 7% in 2009 and 6.6% in 2010. Our quarterly GDP growth outlook is a double-dip scenario. Following the first dip to around 6% in Q4 2008, growth may tentatively recover in H1 2009 but will likely slide again, until hitting the second trough in H1 2010. We expect 2009 to witness the worst deflation in 10 years, with CPI inflation falling below -1% in February and PPI inflation declining to -7% in Q3. Our top-down analysis suggests downside risk of 15-20ppts to the current consensus 2009 EPS growth estimate of 6% for the H-share index. We believe the market will likely be range-bound in the next two quarters (from 8x to 13x 09PE), but a substantial rally may happen in H2 2009 (6-9 months ahead of GDP trough). Given this outlook, we will stay defensive in the near term (e.g., in H1 2009), and switch to a more aggressive asset allocation when signs of an end to analyst downgrades emerge -- hopefully by the middle of 2009. For now, the key sectors we Underweight include banks, raw materials, dry bulk shipping, consumer discretionary and property. We Overweight telecom, oil refining, IPP, F&B, railway construction, healthcare, education and online gaming. The following investment themes support our sector allocation strategy: 1. Deflation: negative for property, commodities, and banking, but positive for F&B, IPP, and oil refining. 2. Counter-cyclical services: healthcare, education, and online gaming should demonstrate significant resilience to the economic slowdown. 3. Consolidation: survivors in steel, non-ferrous, and property sectors will be important long-term beneficiaries of the ongoing industrial consolidation. 4. Rural reform: electronics â€“ ST beneficiary, rural consumption â€“ LT winner. (See attached file: 2009 China Strategy.pdf) Jun Ma Chief Economist, Greater China Head of China/Hong Kong Macro Strategy Deutsche Bank Hong Kong 852-2203-8308

To: pezz who wrote (45230)	1/13/2009 9:12:13 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 217739

hello pezz, today's report: (i) just issued "sell all" at "market" for japan, hong kong and aussie holdings no holdings spared, large and small, young and old, both genders, all must walk the plank or otherwise be sacrificed to atone for biblical sins am sounding full retreat while the retreating is still relatively good, so as to be able to turnaround, burn the bridges and boats, and machine gun the late and stragglers from across the river of tears never mind the tallying, all at loss for sure; no matter, for every cent saved can be used another day. (ii) your cski finance.yahoo.com expeditions Message 25313078 (@ 15.51) and Message 25319218 (13.67) may not be opportune; may instead be against the general wind and pervasive atmosphere. recommendation: review overall strategy, then bother with the tactics. cheers, tj

To: pezz who wrote (45230)	1/18/2009 11:31:35 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217739

hello pezz, today's report: (i) in tune with the stormy music, exchanged more worthless cash for more desired physical panda au coins, but only managed to get 2.5% bidding quantity filled (ii) in keeping with the dire times, placed order for more strategic pt bars, intending to achieve 1:1 pt:au strategic:precious ratio for physical allocation w/i 2009, before any zero-state monetary reset is triggered (iii) in case, took some cash for hoarding, in case banks 'gate' deposits at any time (iv) in alignment w/ the force, will likely do more tbt/srs derivatives this pm, in time for wild panic. cheers, tj