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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (42132)	1/14/2009 9:44:43 AM
From: Honey_Bee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Math junkie, I sure hope you aren't including me in those claiming market timing is possible because that has never been my intention. I have only pointed out that the one who has always sold himself as a "market-timer" has profited greatly from people believing that he could time the market consistently. As you said, we know for certain that he cannot time the market consistently. He can make some good guesses, but his bad guesses are almost equal in number. As you know as a mathematician, that's simply like a coin flip. .

To: Math Junkie who wrote (42132)	1/14/2009 11:13:43 AM
From: EQ	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Math, This is only my opinion, but I think Bob was fairly certain that we were in a CORRECTION. Therefore, he decided to hang on tight and not potentially sell at a low and need to buy back in at higher levels. Obviously history has proven Bob and millions of others wrong. The BIG factor in solidifying this recession (or potential depression) was the financial melt-down and the totally inept way that our employees (The Fed, Treasury, Executive and Legislative branches of government) completely mishandled the situation utilising OUR MONEY. The above events are unprecedented in our financial history. I am not sure how anyone could have foreseen them or proceeded with a TIMELY action plan as the events unfolded. That said, the three areas I fault Bob are as follows: 1) Not having STOP LOSSES or TRAILING STOP LOSSES in place. 2) Not investigating and POSSIBLY using Inverse, Double Inverse or Triple Inverse ETFs to bail him (and his listeners) out once the damage was done. However I think Bob is probably too conservative to use these instruments and the bulk of his followers are probably too conservative and/or don’t understand Inverse ETFs. 3) Lastly, Bob should have come totally clean, told his followers he made a mistake and offereds advice as to what to do now. Cheers, Elan PS: On a personal note, yesterday a company I worked at for 13 years announced they were closing their original manufacturing plant. This was their second plant closure in the past 30 days! They once had nearly 20 plants and now have four (2 of which are in Mexico.) I wish them well, but one must wonder if they will be able to survive this economic crisis. The company has been in business for 65 years.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (42132)	1/14/2009 9:10:20 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Math, i thought i was pretty specific - don't invest in bubble markets and you don't have to ride out bear markets. if you do invest in bubble markets, know the terrain, use specific risk reducing strategies and be ready to get the heck out. i've never claimed to be able to predict when a bear market would start. heck, if i could do that, i would've been fully invested during the insanity on the way up. was i wrong on the fundamentals of the company? nope. but the bubble market raised the dead fish to absurd levels. the one decision to riches mantra is false. ask the japanese (you are familiar with the nikkei, no?) or stick around in these markets a bit longer. the truth is, someone who dollar cost averaged over the last 10 years has lost his collective *ss due to dcaing into a bubble and now sitting on massive losses - EVEN THOUGH THE S&P IS AT ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL AS IT WAS 10 YEARS AGO. the mattress out performed someone who dcaed over the last 10 years - and probably by over 30%! "the only risk is not being in the market" is another fallacy that needs to be taken out back and shot. the market is risky and risk should be respected and properly managed.