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To: skinowski who wrote (9808)1/14/2009 1:22:20 PM
From: rcksinc  Respond to of 41560
 
Ski
Nice summary.
I think we probably topped as you say with the recent high.
The wave 2 bounce which could be underway or likely in a day or so, should not exceed 900 and more likely it will not exceed the falling R-line in this chart.




To: skinowski who wrote (9808)1/14/2009 2:23:34 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41560
 
Wish you'd come back. I could use the help! I intentionally did NOT want to try to pick the top, but now that it looks like there's a reasonable probability that the top is in, I'm struggling to take action. Once I saw the weakness on Monday, I switched over to re-entry mode. However, I've been waiting for the first green close, and we just aren't getting it. So I think I'm going to change re-entry strategy and go in three pieces:

1. at the market, as soon as I switch to re-entry mode
2. on the first 2% bounce
3. following the first green close

We've now given back the entire Santa Claus rally, which I would expect to produce some kind of bounce lasting more than two hours. We'll see. I had such a spectacular 2008, I'm reluctant to do a whole lot right now, but I've got several positions I think will do well if I can just avoid too much in the way of hedging losses.

`BC