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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: octavian who wrote (42153)	1/14/2009 9:24:59 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

octavian, the overall market had been way over valued, too. not the 10,000% like the internet companies, but easily by 100% - and that assumed decent times. as you know, times are currently indecent and getting much worse - fast. i'm sorry for your losses, but you were lied to and believed it. as fleckenstein has said, the market isn't a kitten that doles out cash with regularity, it is a tiger and it will eat you alive. it always has been. that is why risks in the market should be taken seriously. when "the only risk is not being in the market" is touted as wisdom, run for the doors. when dcaing is touted as genius when the pe ratios on the market is about double historical averages at the top of the business cycle, run for the doors. when housing refis are financing economic growth after housing has tripled against the backdrop of flat to down incomes, run for the doors. all this is basic common sense stuff. btw, i can't predict bear markets anymore than i can predict bubble markets. BY DEFINITION, bubble markets are irrational. i didn't know when, but i knew it would burst and i've always said the bust would be proportional to the boom. given this was the biggest bubble in human history... you get the idea. japan was the closest situation to what we now face and the nikkei is down 90% (inflation adjusted) over the last TWO DECADES. right now i'm betting on massive inflation in 6 month to 2 year time frame. money supply is doubling about every two years (if my data is correct) and the supply of goods is shrinking. i have some gold, i'm in TBT, i have some oil and i'm keeping my eyes open for other opportunities. if i had gotten caught by the bear and wanted to stay invested, i'd make sure my investments were the highest quality, lowest risk and paid good sized dividends. I'd probably sell some calls as long as i thought the stock was in a trading range and if it got called away i'd only by back on a fall in price. the game has changed. greed is morphing into fear. if we hit historically low end PEs (we've had high end, the low end is just as possible) against the backdrop of $45 in S&P earnings, the S&P could drop another 60-75% from here within the next year or two. and that assumes the $45 figure isn't already too high. caveat emptor.