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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (45453)	1/29/2009 1:37:44 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217695

"bonanza for fixed-income investors, are about to become a thing of the past" For the first in 35 years Brazil will not be fighting inflation. This is a first and will chnage the whole outlook. Brazil Kisses High Interest Rates Farewell Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s record high interest rates, a bonanza for fixed-income investors, are about to become a thing of the past. Last week Brazil’s central bank lowered the country’s benchmark interest rate for the first time since September 2007. The move is more than a simple response to the global recession. It means Brazil has finally begun to rid itself of the highest real interest rate in the world. On Jan. 21, the central bank’s monetary policy committee voted to lower the primary interest rate, known as Selic, to 12.75 percent from 13.75 percent. The 100 basis-point reduction exceeded the median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg and was the largest rate cut in five years. Even after last week’s aggressive move, Brazil continues to have the highest interest rate of any country after accounting for inflation. While the central bankers of at least five countries tracked by Bloomberg set nominal interest rates higher than Brazil’s current 12.75 percent, none of them have an annual inflation rate as low as Brazil’s 5.9 percent. Venezuela, for example, sets its nominal interest rate at 22.52 percent but its inflation rate last year was 31.9 percent, meaning the country has a negative real interest rate. Russia and Turkey have nominal interest rates of 13 percent and inflation of 13.3 percent and 10.1 percent, respectively. Controlling Inflation About 100 analysts surveyed by the Brazilian central bank on Jan. 23 said the Selic rate will drop to 11 percent by the end of this year. Their reasons include the following: -- The worldwide economic slowdown will reduce consumption in Brazil, easing inflation worries. During the next 12 months, Brazil’s IPCA, the consumer price index targeted by the central bank, is forecast to reach 4.67 percent, a significant drop from the peak of 5.48 percent forecast only two months ago. -- Although the Brazilian real has declined 48 percent against the U.S. dollar since early August, the impact on prices has been less than anticipated. -- Brazil has $202 billion in international reserves, enough to prevent its currency from spiraling out of control and igniting inflation. -- Food and commodity prices have plunged, reducing inflationary pressures even further. -- Although international oil prices have dropped about 70 percent since July, Brazil’s government, which effectively controls local fuel prices, hasn’t yet lowered retail gasoline price and may use this wild card if inflation picks up. Political Pressure These economic explanations for lower interest rates are transitory and may cease to apply when the global economy pulls out of its recession. There’s a more persuasive argument for believing that Brazil’s real interest rate won’t soon return to the record of 8.4 percent. In a word: politics. As the term of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva nears its end and the 2010 presidential election approaches amidst an economic slowdown and rising unemployment, Brazil’s central bankers will come under more pressure to ease their stance as control freaks when it comes to inflation. The politically savvy central bank governor, Henrique Meirelles, already seems aware of the demands to come. Last week, Meirelles denied a report suggesting he had already told president Lula he would soon leave the central bank to run for governor of the state of Goias. Central Bank Makeover Regardless of who is elected in 2010, the new president will likely appoint a less conservative central bank governor, who in turn, will tap a like-minded team to rule on rates. Since Brazil’s constitution prohibits Lula from seeking a third term, the most likely presidential candidates are Lula’s chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, and Sao Paulo’s state governor, Jose Serra. Both oppose high interest rates. “What is one of Brazil’s problems? We have the highest interest rate in the world, a record the central bank seems eager to keep,” Serra said in an interview with Brazil’s Jovem Pan radio on Dec. 9. “A large part of the difficulties we are facing today comes from a mistaken policy by the central bank. We practiced stratospheric interest rates, which overvalued the currency.” Rousseff, as Lula’s colleague, has been more cautious on this issue. Still, on Dec. 18 she spoke about the global trend toward lower interest rates and said Brazil must “seize the moment.” Managing interest rates appropriately in 2009 “will be a crucial issue,” she said. Futures markets remain oblivious to the self-evident political truth that Brazil’s central bank will soon become less conservative. The CDI interbank deposit rate projected for January 2012, one year after the next president will be in office, remains at 11.8 percent. Odds are this rate will continue to fall in coming months, just like the January 2010 rate plunged to 11.3 percent, from 16.8 percent on Oct. 24. The bottom line: The days are over for Brazil’s policy of keeping real interest rates at such high levels. (Alexandre Marinis, political economist and founding partner of Mosaico Economia Politica, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) To contact the writer of this column: Alexandre Marinis in Sao Paulo at amarinis1@bloomberg.net

To: THE ANT who wrote (45453)	1/31/2009 4:15:22 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217695

For the first in 35 years Brazil will not be fighting inflation. This is a first and will chnage the whole outlook. siliconinvestor.com With inflation down government has some weapons to tame the economic downturn. Of course he is paving the way to get his successor elected... Lula Raises Brazil’s Minimum Wage 12% as of February (Update2) Email \| Print \| A A A By Diana Kinch and Andre Soliani Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva raised the minimum wage by 12 percent starting next month, a move the government said will increase incomes of more than 20 percent of the population. bloomberg.com

To: THE ANT who wrote (45453)	3/25/2009 9:00:51 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217695

Hi Klaser. How things? We need your opinions about the bailout and other daily issues.

To: THE ANT who wrote (45453)	4/7/2009 9:20:16 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217695

Wife says: os eletronicos aqui sao 3 vezes mais baratos que no Brasil, roupa tambem é 3 vezes mais barato, mas comida é 2 ou 3 vezes mais caro, so que a qualidade e a quantidade é um convite a comer. And Experiment: [13:53:43] thewayoman says: Would you like to live in such place [13:54:47] Experiment says: I wouldn't like to live here, but surely it is a very nice place to visit and come on vacation. [13:55:01] thewayoman says: Why you would not like to live there [13:56:01] Experiment says: It has this beachy kind of feeling and it is HOT all year long. I prefer the cold weather.

To: THE ANT who wrote (45453)	5/9/2009 1:09:30 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217695

I remember you today because you said that 50% of the people who retire, die within the first year after retirement. I was thinking here in what I call the potted plant problem. That brought back that what you told me, above. It works like that my idea about the potted plant syndrome: (Perhaps echoes of Huxley 'Brave New World') If you are not challenged in a minute by minute basis your brain and your whole body slows down and you will tend to the potted plant side. If you keep the challenges coming and deal away with them, you will veer away from the plotted plant problem. Society creates potted plants as people get rich and entertain themselves and "have a life" as it is commonly said. Companies create pottet plants as they create routines, rules and check points. The school prepares people for potted plant type of life So no wonder you have more potted plants than real people Now if you work like you do, your pendulum is is swung in the 9 o'oclok postion full anti- potted plant. If someone is unemployed, seat at home, do nothing its pendulum is at three o'clock fully in the potted plant position. Now if someome's pendulum is suddenly swung from one end to another, say form the 9 o'clock postion to the 3 o'clock postion, his brain and body is shocked and the guy dies. I stop 7:40Pm most nights to watch NCIS, and slow down, my pednulum comes down to six o'clock position, I go eat, return and for almost two hours tnhe pendulm in point straight down. Sice my awake day is about 16 to 17 hours, I have more than 10% of the time in iddle with pendulum pointing down, on 6 o'clock position.