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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marcos who wrote (62921)	1/18/2009 4:05:44 PM
From: tyc:>	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78426

>> "...sort of coming around to Claude's view on this" Me too, Marcos (believe it or not ). But let's be clear on what Claude's view IS. I think he has made it clear that he expects copper to fall before it climbs to the astronomical heights forecast by Schulich (sp?). In other words extreme volatility. Let's face it, in the present circumstances we should be grateful that neither New Afton nor La Fortuna nor Mt Milligan are currently in production. They are truly "warrants" on the future volatile price of copper. I see MtM and TRX as the better priced warrant, especially when you consider what TRX will represent after (if?) Goldcorp exercises its option for a 60% participating interest in MT M. Even that Brook Hunt article that was so bearish on future copper prices foresaw higher prices coming first "as an opportunity to hedge against a future decline". TRX has no copper production to hedge, but Goldcorp does in its Alumbrera production. Such a hedge would serve to gurantee the profitability of its Mt.M participation. (If such a hedge should be considered necessary). I note that NGD bought (back) some of its "junk-" bonds ! It's surprising that it has nothing better to do with its hard-to-replace cash.

To: marcos who wrote (62921)	1/18/2009 4:08:35 PM
From: teevee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78426

Hey, long time no chat....and belated Happy New Year.... Will it be Dr Copper who first shouts recovery, or Nurse Oil ... Dr. Copper doesn't see much of a recovery for quite some time-patient appears to be in intensive care as futures curve is very flat all the way out to Dec '10 futuresource.quote.com Nurse Oil concurs if you believe $65 oil is break even for "new" oil, with front month prices dropping towards spot as contracts roll over.... futuresource.quote.com The gas curve is also flattening out suggesting Nov '10 for $7 gas..... futuresource.quote.com Nurse oil will shout first, but Dr. Copper will have to join the chorus before a recovery is believable and not just a trade...... If you are lucky enough to pick the "last man standing" and park some money there, its probably dead money for almost 2 years, and maybe longer....... Now that Teck has blown up its balance sheet, what is new exit strategy for explorers? do you see any "healthy" intermediate producers that could be acquirers in this market? Explorers must have a minimum of 5 billion pounds copper at 1% Cu equivalent before RTP, BHP, Anglo or perhaps Xstrata would even have a look.