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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (45513)	1/20/2009 3:39:43 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217737

Mq, Pixelation is the be all and end all of growth and prosperity now, not oil. Oil is so last century. I agree with you wholeheartedly but find that you have ignored one extremely important issue: that despite the end of cheap oil, we have not done anything of substance to prepare for its demise. Sure, there are some nuclear reactors here and there, in substantial numbers in places like France, but solar and wind power are infinitesimal and absurdly inadequate. We have all the coal we need to power everything for decades but the environmental concerns have dampened its use in the US. Not so in an number of other places. Nonetheless, coal will produce lots of electrcity around the world. But unless CTL takes place on an enormous scale, it will be useless for transportation unless, of course, you think there is a big future for electric cars powered through coal-produced electricity. I don't think this will happen. Simply put, we should have been preparing for a transformation out of oil a very long time ago. Its very efficiency and relative cheapness has delayed the transformation. We are accordingly at a crossroads. One road is marked by the fact that oil is still critically necessary despite peaking production. The other, of course, is the course leading to its replacement or, more accurately, the path leading to the increased use of other sources of energy. We are between and betwixt these two intersecting paths. My opinion is that we have neglected for any number of reasons the non-oil component of our energy needs and will therefore suffer through a period of very expensive oil because the era of relatively easy and cheap to produce oil is over. Look at Mexico's Cantarell mega field, Norway, the UK and, if you believe folks like Simmons, the Arabs. I think I approach the energy game with a slightly different perspective than yours - not that I don't respect your views, I certainly do, you are an ex-oil man with vast experience - as I simply look for a way to make money out of the facts as I see them. Today, oil is practically being given away. There will be no energy panacea in the next 3-5 years. Obama will not wave a magic wand and make the looming energy crisis go away. Anyone who buys oil today stands to make a very nice return within a reasonable time frame. Mark this post for review in 3 years. Let's compare notes then.